Straitjacket of minority government is slowly asphyxiating our body politic

Voters must be offered more than a void if they are to be spared another do-nothing administration at Leinster House, writes Ed Brophy

IN a week when the Dail heard calls to bring in the army to tackle the rhododendron situation in Killarney National Park, the toxic roots of another alien species — minority government — further contaminated public faith in politics. A Cabinet agenda so light that it could have been dialled in by ministers, who must by now have padding-out their official diaries down to a fine art, felt entirely in tune with the political mood.

As is often the case, the Independent ministers brought nothing to the table; having forged their political identities in the argument that government doesn’t work, they now appear hell-bent on proving this in office.

Such indolence will only spread as the extended Fine Gael leadership contest slouches towards a conclusion sometime after Easter. Meanwhile, the accumulation of woes — chronic, cyclical and, in the case of Brexit, unprecedented — that pile up for any government risks toppling this one.

The 2016 general election that nobody won bequeathed us the Government that nobody — apart from perhaps Enda Kenny and Micheal Martin — wanted. Unlike other sublime enunciations of limited government like the US constitution, ours is underpinned by the workaday confidence-and-supply agreement that guarantees office for Fine Gael by handing power to Fianna Fail. Of course, confidence and supply enables the mechanical functioning of government, particularly the approval of Budgets; but at its heart is a straitjacket that condemns the party of government to ineffectiveness in the face of issues of public concern, and, hence, blame for its failure to resolve them.

Since laying this trap for Kenny, which he had to enter to avoid becoming what Costa Nostra calls — more lyrically than Shane Ross — an “excellent cadaver”, Martin has built a platform of power without responsibility, which may sweep him to victory at the next election. Keeping Enda in place was the unspoken, but central, tenet of that strategy. Now that he is going, it’s still in Fianna Fail’s interests to keep the show on the road. Which is why what Kenny’s likely successors think about confidence and supply is the only political question that matters right now.

The stark truth is that neither Simon Coveney nor Leo Varadkar needs Fianna Fail for life support in the same way as Kenny. They have freedom of action. So how would they use it?

Neither has shirked confrontation with Fianna Fail, and Coveney, in particular, laid down an important marker by pulling rank on rent controls. However, he is also viewed as more well-disposed to renewing vows with Martin, whereas Varadkar barely conceals his contempt for Fianna Fail and the ignominy of confidence and supply.

In private, he is known to be even more scathing. Why, having fixed Fianna Fail’s mess, should the old enemy lord it over his party and rub their noses in it? The voters may have short memories, but there are limits to the political price Fine Gael should pay for acting responsibly.

If all that was at stake was the fate of a political party, then we would shrug and dutifully dust off the hoariest cliches about this cruel trade. However, our body politic is being slowly asphyxiated. Confidence and supply, like the rhododendron scourge, has crowded out most species of political flora other than a pseudo social democracy. Instead of a one-party state, we have one (bad) idea that rules them all.

Coveney’s answer is to double down. When he set out his vision for Fine Gael in a recent interview with David McWilliams, he said he wanted it to become more caring. In other words, a little bit to the left, like his constituency colleague Micheal Martin. In part, this is just a recognition of political reality. As Fiach Kelly pointed out in the Irish Times last week, to keep the Government in place, there can be no policy difference of any significance between Fine Gael and Fianna Fail.

Coveney is saying that he is fine with this — both now and into the future. The inevitable consequence will be a series of do-nothing minority governments, while the world is turned upside down and all our old certainties collapse. It also means Fine Gael gradually shedding its hard-earned economic credibility and reputation for fiscal prudence as it succumbs to the gravitational pull of Fianna Fail.

We deserve better. Or at least a choice. Varadkar started to sketch one out recently in this paper, where he said that the choice is between those who want to go back to the nationalism and protectionism of the past and those who embrace the ideas of the future like liberalism, globalism, equality of opportunity and greater personal liberty and responsibility. In a week when Trump’s Chief Stragegist Steve Bannon dripped poison about globalism, Varadkar’s defence of classic liberalism will appeal to many.

A standing joke among Labour ministers and advisers in the last government was that one of our under-appreciated achievements was to make a social democrat of Leo. While this was facetious, his liberalism is for real. More than most, he realises that traditional left and right labels are increasingly pointless in a world where a Republican US President decries free trade and the National Front candidate in the French presidential-election campaigns on a platform of more spending, more welfare and more subsidies. What he proposes instead is an inclusive and hard-headed liberal pragmatism, a new kind of third way for our nationalist vs globalist era, similar to what may sweep Macron to the Elysee in France.

The real question is whether Varadkar could develop his distinctive message and make policy that reflects it within the constraints of confidence and supply. Would he take a stand on water charges, the counterproductive capping of mortgage rates or any number of populist Fianna Fail wheezes?

In testing the arrangement with Fianna Fail to its limits, whoever succeeds Kenny must ultimately be prepared to walk away. The jaded political wisdom, mainly uttered by politicians, says the people don’t want an election. No one really knows what the people think about that.

Another slice of conventional wisdom says that the result wouldn’t be much different. And while there may be few things more predictable than people talking about the unpredictability of politics, a new Fine Gael leader may alter the terms of political trade so much that the outcome of any election is unknowable.

If the result is opposition for Fine Gael, then so be it. Once it develops its message, then a liberal Fine Gael under Varadkar will build a winning coalition before too long — particularly if it opposes a Fianna Fail/Sinn Fein majority government. And the country’s prospects will be immeasurably better for having that choice rather than our present void.

‘Whoever succeeds Kenny must ultimately be prepared to walk away...’