Eilis O’Hanlon

The result of the election is that the political landscape now looks even more divided, writes Eilis O’Hanlon

NORTHERN Ireland didn’t need an election. It needed a government. It still does, but the results of Thursday’s Assembly elections make it even more unlikely that it will get one.

Instead, the likely result of Sinn Fein getting an electoral fillip on the back of collapsing Stormont is British direct rule for the indefinite future.

That’s not to take away from SF’s success. To increase the number of seats in an Assembly that was shrinking in size, ending up nearly level with the DUP, is a remarkable achievement and, selfishly speaking, fully vindicates the party’s decision to pull the plug on power-sharing.

But the result is that the political landscape of the North now looks even more divided. Making the most of the advantages afforded to the largest parties on either side of the tribal divide by the Belfast Agreement, the SF and DUP blocs are now seeing off the last pockets of resistance.

The SDLP did well to hold on to the same number of seats, but remains little more than a minor irritant to SF, and, even with reduced support, the DUP still easily outguns the Ulster Unionists.

It’s almost funny now to remember that this was the outcome that was promoted by the Department of Foreign Affairs in Dublin. Let SF and the DUP rout the established parties, they said. It will make it easier to get a stable agreement, they said. Well, they got their way. It just doesn’t look such a cunning plan any more.

biggest and most immediate casualty was UUP leader Mike Nesbitt, who resigned on Friday night. The former broadcaster was gracious in defeat, but reminded those inclined to mock the downfall of a once great party that he had tried to pursue post-sectarian politics in the belief that, between them, the UUP and SDLP could form a better alternative government.

Nah, said the voters, just give us more of the same.

SDLP elder statesman Alban Maginness said Nesbitt paid the price for committing “heresy”. He had broken the “iron law of Ulster politics” that “sectarian solidarity trumps everything else”.

That’s certainly what happened in the Republican electorate. After being on the ropes lately, with People Before Profit topping the poll in West Belfast and the nationalist vote falling across the six counties, SF rallied strongly.

The favoured image last week was that a sleeping dragon had been roused, and the responsibility for that rests squarely with former First Minister Arlene Foster.

The DUP leader was under fire for her bullish handling of the Renewable Heating Initiative scandal, but she could have survived that. In fact, she largely did. Unionists didn’t seem that bothered by it.

Her biggest critic from within the DUP, Jonathan Bell, was kicked out of the party and stood in Strangford as an independent. His vote halved and he failed to retain his seat.

What Foster roused instead was the soporific spirit of Republicanism, which only needed a pantomime villain to provide a focus for resistance.

Her silliest mistake was that she rose to the bait and played the villain, not least with her belligerent comments about the Irish language, which made it seem as if she considered those for whom Irish identity matters to be uppity natives who should know their place. That alone guaranteed Sinn Fein a boost.

Brexit was significant too. Northern Ireland voted to remain part of the EU, but Foster opted not to represent the views of the whole of the country, but only those who voted to leave. No wonder there was a reported “carnival atmosphere” at polling stations in nationalist areas as people turned out to put some manners on a DUP that badly needed some.

There is still a chance that Foster’s position as leader may be wobbly after the result. On her watch, SF came within a whisker of snatching the position of First Minister, which would have been a staggering psychological blow for Unionism. In the event, she’ll probaThe bly be safe because hard-line Unionists are no more going to kowtow to Provo pressure than the Croppies meekly lie down on Arlene’s command.

But both sides have learned, or relearned, a valuable lesson — in the North, blaming ‘Themmuns’ for everything works. Ten months ago, the DUP was triumphantly reaping the rewards of turning an election into a sectarian mickey-waving contest. This time, it’s SF who won bragging rights by turning the tide.

There were some positive signs. Under its personable new leader, Naomi Long, the cross-community Alliance Party performed well, picking up votes from moderate Unionists dismayed by Foster’s strident tone.

But Alliance’s success was an anomaly in a system that automatically gives power to the two largest parties and expressly forbids alternative arrangements. This polarisation is encoded into the DNA of the Belfast Agreement.

Power has been handed again to the two parties who misuse it most. In the last Assembly, it was the DUP who abused its power. After this election, the decision as to what to do with an enhanced mandate lies with SF. Early signs are not promising.

By still insisting that Foster step aside as a precondition of reviving the executive, SF seems to be scheming to ensure it cannot happen. It would rather bank these gains, and then see what happens next, possibly even using the return of direct rule by a parliament in London that’s intent on imposing Brexit on an unwilling Northern Ireland as a focal point for nationalist discontent. Attention may turn in the meantime to a possible election in the Republic.

The DUP leader clearly knows what SF is about. In her speech after retaining her own seat, Foster’s eagerness for a return of devolution was palpable. She declared that there was no mandate in the election results for direct rule, and stressed that she would head into negotiations this week ready to seek solutions.

She even made some less than convincing conciliatory remarks about respecting Ulster’s overlapping identities. If she’d shown this compromising spirit throughout the election campaign, things might have been different; she could have neutralised the personal opposition to her. It was too little, and it was far too late.

The one benefit is that same sex marriage could be back on the cards, as the DUP has now dipped below 30 seats and thus cannot block it using a so-called ‘petition of concern’ as it did previously. That the DUP’s loss might prove to be an LGBT gain will be the final insult for many traditionalists, and deliciously satisfying for everyone else.

‘Power has been handed to the two parties who misuse it most’