Does political brain Leo truly understand people’s emotions?

LEO Varadkar has associated his campaign for the leadership of Fine Gael, and the country, with that of the new centrist French President Emmanuel Macron. There is a documentary on Netflix called Emmanuel Macron:

Behind the Rise .Akey moment occurred 15 days out, at a time when Macron assessed that voters were about to make up their minds. He assembled his team around a large table and enthusiastically urged them to redouble their efforts. Voters would give victory to the candidate who showed that he or she wanted it most: “I know the French people,” he said. After the leadership election, a question arises and remains unanswered: how well does Leo Varadkar know and understand the Irish people and what we might call our emotions? The question could be asked in reverse: how well do we know Leo Varadkar?

In this newspaper last weekend, the normally private Varadkar allowed an insight into his family and home life. Barry Egan crafted a nuanced article layered with illumination.

Among the many aspects of Varadkar’s life that intrigued, a relatively small detail emerged. The last book the Taoiseach-inwaiting had read was

Political Brain by Drew Westen, a professor of psychology and psychiatry in the US. As it happens, I have also read that book, subtitled: The Role of Emotion in Deciding the Fate of the Nation. While the book was written from a leftist perspective, aimed at the Democrats in the US, there is a parallel for Fine Gael: at the time, only one Democrat had been re-elected to the presidency since Franklin Roosevelt and only one Republican had failed to be re-elected.

After a term in government, Fine Gael has always failed to be reelected, other than at the most recent election, which is widely accepted to have been also “lost” by Fine Gael.

What Westen’s research elucidated is that, in politics, when reason and emotion collide, emotion always wins. His evidence is overwhelming that three factors determine how people vote — and in this order: feelings toward the parties and their principles; feelings toward the candidates; and, if they have not decided by then, feelings toward the candidates’ policy positions. The first thing to be said and done is to congratulate Leo Varadkar on his election as leader of Fine Gael, and to state that his victory is not hollow, but is according to the rules of the party. The second is that the manner of his defeat at the hands of the party membership somewhat undermines his leadership before it gets under way.

Varadkar’s defeat in that college speaks to the concern the membership obviously had at the pitch and tone of his campaign, which came across unnecessarily harsh and right-wing even though he had projected himself as a new centrist candidate.

As I said last week, Varadkar failed to clearly define what such a candidate was or should be, other than to associate himself with the new French president; and in his failure to do so, the membership preferred to wrap themselves in the comfort blanket of a Just Society as espoused by Simon Coveney.

This tells us that the country may have moved on somewhat since the election, but that the view as expressed in that election by Fianna Fail (and by Micheal Martin in particular), that fairness and decency in society trumps the detached aloofness of a rampant market place, still has a resonance with people — including the majority of what is traditionally the most conservative section of the electorate: that is, your average Fine Gael voter.

It also tells us more than that, however: with a parliamentary party apparently so out of touch with its own support base, it reminds us why Fine Gael has repeatedly failed to secure successive terms through the decades. ***** Last week I caught up with Leo Varadkar for the first time during the leadership contest, and had a simple question for him.

“I have what may appear to be a ridiculous question that may or may not be quoted in a colloquial fashion, depending on what you say: Are you happy? This question is loosely based around that book you have read, The Political Brain.”

“Yes. I am,” he said. “Great book.” In fact, there are three timeless books that all politicians should read: The Prince, by Machiavelli; Nicomachean Ethics ,by Aristotle, and Meditations, by Marcus Aurelius.

I recall interviewing Brian Cowen in the Taoiseach’s office and noting the copy of Meditations on his desk. Heaven knows, he needed to be stoic.

Roman Stoic philosopher Marcus Aurelius advocated an approach to life that today we might call mindfulness. It was interesting to note, in an interview in the Irish Times last week, that Varadkar practises mindfulness. “I need five minutes before we start,” he told Pat Leahy. “Mindfulness,” his press secretary shrugged. “It’s his new thing.” In Nicomachean Ethics, Aristotle argues that the correct approach for studying ethics or politics is to start with what would be roughly agreed to be true by people of ‘good upbringing’ and ‘experience in life’, and to work to a higher understanding. He says the highest good for humans, the highest aim of all human practical thinking, is wellbeing or happiness.

In his interview with Barry Egan, it was evident that Varadkar has had a good upbringing, although I would imagine with an expectation that he achieve highly in life, which can also bring certain anxieties of the kind that Leo sometimes seems to bear.

That said, I recall concluding in an article about him the week he came out as a gay man — after a dinner we shared that week — that he was a “beautiful human being”, which of course, he always will be.

So, it is good that he is happy, which I also imagine is a relatively recent state and, as with us all, more an occasional state than not. Happiness is, perhaps, more an emotion than a mood.

A question remains, however, as to what extent this 38-year-old man has experienced life and will such a relative lack of life experience negatively impact upon his performance in the role of Taoiseach? It will be fascinating to see... Although the words are frequently used interchangeably, emotion and mood may be related but are distinct phenomena.

A recent opinion poll for this newspaper, headlined ‘Nation’s mood at 28year high’, found that the public’s confidence about their personal finances has soared to a level higher than throughout the Celtic Tiger period and is now at its highest point in 28 years.

This national mood will, therefore, inform the result of the next election. However, such a mood should not be confused with the emotions which emerge during a general election, which could also be detected in the Fine Gael membership vote. This is how the author Drew Westen subsequently critiqued the then presidency of Barack Obama: “What’s costing the president are three things: a laissez faire style of leadership that appears weak and removed to everyday Americans; a failure to articulate and defend any coherent ideological position on virtually anything; and a widespread perception that he cares more about special interests like bank, credit card, oil and coal, and health and pharmaceutical companies than he does about the people they are shafting.

“I say this as someone who has spent much of the last three years studying what moves voters in the middle, the undecideds who will hear whichever side speaks to them with moral clarity.”

And this is what he advised to win the centre, where Varadkar and Martin, both men of moral clarity, will do battle: “You want to win the centre? Emanate strength. Emanate conviction. Lead like you know where you’re going.”

Of the criticisms levelled at Obama, Leo Varadkar can not necessarily be accused of a failure to articulate and defend a coherent ideological position, albeit an uncomfortable ideology for many. If anything, he is all or too much ideology. It could also be argued that he has conviction, though sometimes fails to emanate. By my count, however, Martin remains on course to win the hearts, more importantly than the minds, of the middle, and that makes him still favourite to be the next Taoiseach.

Undoubtedly, Martin also has reason to most want to be Taoiseach, as failure will, conceivably, see an end to what has been his wise leadership of Fianna Fail.

The manner of Varadkar’s defeat in the leadership ground war, however — mark my words — quietly hands the initiative back to Fianna Fail. The question is whether Martin is prepared to seize it.

One thing seems certain though: this leadership ground war, and the playout of the UK election, means Varadkar will not be calling an election any time soon.

Meanwhile, we will get to see whether he leads like he knows where he is going; more than that, whether he truly knows the Irish people, and instinctively understands their emotions.