Gallagher’s plan to win rematch with Michael D for Aras

The entrepreneur’s cryptic approach to the election is confusing — but there is a definite plan, says Kevin Doyle

SEAN Gallagher is looking for a second chance — but it has to be a realistic one. The entrepreneur who was days away from being elected president in 2011 has played a game of cat and mouse with the media, and perhaps Michael D Higgins, over recent weeks.

There have been cryptic letters asking councillors to give newcomers a shot at getting on the ballot paper and letters to the housing minister looking for better coordination of spending on literature. Earlier last week, somebody registered the website domain ‘seangallagher2018.com’ — but at no point has he made a public statement on his intentions.

While his Dragons’ Den co-star Gavin Duffy and others like Pieta House founder Joan Freeman have been traipsing around the country buying tea and cake for councillors, Gallagher has been nowhere to be seen.

But the Sunday Independent can today reveal that he has the makings of a plan that will take the battle to Michael D Higgins.

Along with a small team, he has been calculating the risks and opportunities that come with making a second tilt for the Aras.

The row over RTE’s ‘Tweetgate’, which tripped him up before the 2011 poll, was put to bed (in his favour) just before Christmas.

“This will be a completely different type of election to 2011. The feedback he’s getting ranges from, ‘how do you run a new campaign against an incumbent’ to ‘definitely go for it’,” according to a source.

“Now he’s looking at the real data, polling, feedback and that’s the basis on which he’s considering this.”

This newspaper has seen some of the data which is helping form Gallagher’s view of the election — and it gives a fascinating insight into his line of thinking.

Back at the height of the recession, Gallagher used his business credentials as a selling point. One slogan went: “Let’s put our strengths to work.”

His rural roots and entrepreneurial skills will feature heavily again if he enters the race — but the real question is how would he unseat Higgins?

The bookmakers say the sitting President is unbeatable. Large sections of the media fawn over his every public appearance. And the two main political parties have decided he’s not worth fighting.

However, Gallagher’s team believe it can’t be a simple coronation by public and political adulation.

They accept that Michael D will probably win on first preference votes — but go a bit deeper and the race could tighten up.

Private polling done on behalf of Gallagher suggests he would pick up 33pc of second preferences, compared with only 22pc for Mr Higgins. That would make things interesting, especially as Gavin Duffy and Joan Freeman admitted last week that they both voted for the businessman last time out.

The figures give Gallagher’s team hope that they have a basis from which to launch a campaign. After that it would be about chipping away at the Higgins halo.

Already, questions have been raised about how Aras an Uachtarain uses taxpayers’ money. President Higgins is refusing to engage on the issue, even allowing reports that he stayed in a Swiss hotel that charges €3,000-a-night for a suite to swirl unchallenged.

Throughout the campaign voters will be reminded that the 77-year-old promised to be a one-term president.

There’s an argument that most people don’t really care about his change of heart, which is partly based on his impressive energy levels. However, if portrayed in a different way, could views be swayed?

What if it were the case that Michael D had become comfortable living in his Phoenix Park mansion — the left-wing liberal turned champagne socialist.

According to the data sitting on Sean Gallagher’s desk, one in five voters feels it’s time for Higgins to retire, while 60pc say the reversal of his one-term promise has the potential to influence their vote.

But perhaps the interesting angle under consideration by ‘Team Gallagher’ is a question about what Higgins has achieved with his Presidency.

For sure, he has spoken well on the international stage (aside from praising Fidel Castro as “a giant among global leaders”). His State visit to the UK was a high point, as was his management of the 1916 centenary celebrations.

But what was his “Mna na hEireann” or “Building Bridges” moment?

Right now, people see no real alternative to Michael D as President. That’s what happens when somebody spends seven untainted years in office. It’s hard to imagine an alternative way of doing things. If it’s not broken, don’t fix it.

But when reminded of those who went before him, where does Higgins rank?

According to Gallagher’s information, people remember the presidencies of Mary Robinson and Mary McAleese as being far more dynamic and relevant.

Some 71pc of more than 1,100 people polled said Mr Higgins has been “less active” than McAleese.

Sources close to Gallagher argue there are holes to be picked in the Higgins Presidency that wouldn’t happen in normal times but must happen during an election.

It’s a risky game though that could backfire. The Cavan man will continue to consider his options for at least another fortnight before deciding whether or not to put his name forward.

Which brings us to the question of how Gallagher expects to even secure a nomination. While he remains in effective hiding, others have taken on the council circuit with gusto.

Sources say he hasn’t been phoning councillors but might start the process in the coming days. Either way, they have few concerns about getting the support of four local authorities.

“Don’t watch the noise, watch the impact of the nominations,” said a source. “He could lock down double-digit councils without actually breaking a sweat.”

This theory is based on his experience in 2011 when Gallagher got councillors from Cork City, Clare, Leitrim and Meath to sign his papers.

Back then he won the backing of Leitrim without making a presentation in the council chamber. David Norris delivered a rousing speech in Carrick-on-Shannon but was whitewashed in the vote.

“We met every councillor and some twice,” a Gallagher source noted.

His supporters reckon they also had Roscommon, Longford, Offaly, Donegal, Carlow and Waterford in the bag but “handed them back” after securing the necessary four. That helped Norris and Dana get on the ticket.

Part of Gallagher’s letter to councillors on July 10 argued it is “vital for everyone in public life to facilitate the process by which more candidates are encouraged to come forward”.

In other words, councils should help challengers get on to the ticket rather than rubber-stamp nominations for people who have already reached the quota.

In 2011, Mary Davis had 13 local authority nominations before going on to finish last in the election with fewer than 50,000 votes.

Of course, the more candidates that enter the field, the more potential there is for transfers to decide the result.

Right now, Sean Gallagher is largely known as the man who had the presidency stolen from him. If he runs again that epitaph will change, regardless of the result.

‘The Cavan man will consider his options for at least another fortnight ’