BREXIT - WHAT NEXT?
NOVEMBER 24-25 Emergency EU summit
Theresa May is in Brussels this weekend for a special Brexit summit that is set to approve both the draft withdrawal agreement and the political declaration on future ties, agreed by negotiators over the past two weeks. Expect to hear a lot of talk about fish. For an agreement to be reached at today’s summit, the withdrawal treaty text needs to be backed by a supermajority of leaders of member states (representing at least 20 of the other 27 EU countries and 65pc of the population).
DECEMBER 2018 House of Commons vote
If as expected the EU summit backs the withdrawal treaty and the declaration on future relations, the deal will go to the House of Commons for “a meaningful vote” – and this is the moment of truth. The Tories and the UK opposition are at odds over the scope for amendments to the vote (whether they can include, for example, provisions on a possible second EU referendum). But all sides agree that time will be limited if the withdrawal treaty itself is to get proper parliamentary scrutiny, a process that can only begin after the meaningful vote.
JANUARY - FEBRUARY 2019 Deal passed into UK law
If the House of Commons approves the Brexit deal in “a meaningful vote”, the Tories will then draw up a Bill to pass into law some big Brexit issues – and we can expect to see many battles on individual details, such as agreeing on citizens’ rights, the divorce settlement and more.
BEFORE MARCH 29 2019 And the deal will have to pass into EU law too
The European Parliament must approve any Brexit deal in a plenary vote. MEPs could also refer any legally questionable elements to the EU Court of Justice.
11 PM MARCH 29 2019 Brexit day
The grass will keep growing, and there will probably be some scattered showers. We can also expect pompous declarations from every side of the political fence. Whether there will be any change to everyday life in the EU or in the UK is hard to tell from this vantage point. There could be seamless transition; there could be a chaotic cliff-edge Brexit. Place your bets.
DECEMBER 31 2020 An end to transition?
The transition period is scheduled to end on this date, though according to the draft withdrawal treaty that could be changed. EU chief negotiator Michel Barnier has said the transition could be extended up to December 31 2022.
AFTER MARCH 30 2019 Trade talks and transition
While Britain was a member of the EU, fully-fledged trade talks were not permitted. Under the deal reached in principle in 2018, this is when the 21-month transition period begins. During the transition most aspects of UK membership of the EU will remain in place – but the UK will no longer have a vote.
DECEMBER 31 2022? Enter… the backstop
If, at the end of the transition, no deal is in place to avoid a hard border in Ireland, then the much maligned “backstop” automatically kicks in. This will keep the entire UK in a “temporary” customs union with the EU with Northern Ireland more deeply integrated into the bloc. Brexiters are deeply opposed to the backstop plan, arguing that it imperils the integrity of the UK, increases Brussels’ powers over Britain on issues such as tax, state aid, and labour and environmental regulation, and provides no guaranteed date for exit. That’s what it says on the tin.
2030? Full Brexit?
The maximum facilitation plan (“max fac”, as some have christened it) favoured by some hardcore Brexiteers would rely on advanced technology to speed up customs checks and so allow the UK exit the backstop. But most informed observers say that it will need years to put in place, kicking the “full Brexit” can so far down the road that even Nigel Farage will have forgotten all about it.