White House wary of threat from China

When the Trump administration pulled the plug on a decades-old nuclear arms treaty with Russia, it set the stage for delicate talks with US allies over potential new American missile deployments.

The Trump administration thinks the arms treaty was an unacceptable obstacle to more forcefully confronting not only Russia but China. China’s military has grown mightily since the treaty was signed, and the pact has prevented the US from deploying weapons to counter some of those being developed in Beijing.

Leaving the INF pact, however, risks aggravating relations with EU allies, who share the Trump regime view that Russia is violating the treaty — but have not endorsed a US withdrawal.

The INF treaty was the first arms control measure to ban an entire class of weapons: ground-launched cruise missiles with a range of between 500 and 5,500km. At the time, in the late stages of the Cold War, the US and its allies were mainly concerned by the perceived threat of Russian medium-range nuclear missiles that were targeted at Europe. The US deployed similar missiles in response, in the 1980s, leading to negotiations that produced the INF treaty.

Administration officials have dismissed concerns that the treaty’s demise could trigger a race to develop and deploy more intermediate-range missiles.

US officials have emphasised their fear that China, which is not party to the treaty, is gaining a significant military advantage in Asia by deploying large numbers of missiles with ranges beyond the treaty’s limit.

Whether the US will now respond by deploying INF non-compliant missiles in Asia is unclear. In any case, it seems unlikely Beijing would agree to any negotiated limits on its weaponry.

Earlier last week US intelligence officials called attention to efforts by China and Russia to expand their global influence, particularly in Asia and the Middle East.

Over the past five years, Chinese forces have steadily consolidated and expanded their presence in the South China Sea through land reclamation efforts. China’s building of artificial islands on tiny reefs in the middle of the South China Sea created a fresh theatre for geopolitical manoeuvres.