We need sceptics to inoculate us against toxic groupthink

Are the conditions perfect for Ireland to be vulnerable to the perfect storm of groupthink driven by social media, asks Conor Skehan

‘We must try to carry out rigorous appraisals of critical decisions’

THREE hundred and one years ago, this weekend, William Jumper — a native of Bandon, Co Cork — was given command of a large royal navy warship, Lenox, in recognition of his diligence and valour in battle.

Six years later the Irishman and his ship played a pivotal part in one of Britain’s greatest naval disasters. In October 1707, a royal navy fleet ran on to the coast of the Scilly Isles with the loss of four warships that claimed the lives of up to 4,000 men.

This happened because the commander of the fleet, Sir Cloudesley Shovell, was uncertain of their exact location. So, the admiral “summoned the sailing masters of his ships… and consulted them as to the fleet’s actual position. All were of the opinion that they were... near the coast of France, except the sailing master of HMS Lenox [William Jumper], who judged they were nearer Scilly and that three hours’ sail would bring them in sight of the isles. Shovell adopted the prevalent opinion and then detached [Jumper] for Falmouth, Cornwall.”

Jumper and the ships that he led made it safely to the less glamorous destination of Falmouth, while the rest of the fleet followed a wrong course that led them straight to disaster on the rocks, instead of to Portsmouth where they were expecting a hero’s welcome.

This record of making decisions based upon ‘the prevalent opinion’ is one of the earliest and best documented examples of the catastrophic effects of groupthink — which is rationalised conformity by a group of decision-makers. Groupthink has been recognised as being the ultimate cause of many fatal decisions of that, including the failed US invasion of Cuba in 1961; the collision of two Jumbo jets in Tenerife in 1977; as well as the loss of the Challenger space shuttle on take-off in 1986.

Groupthink is well-studied and has classic symptoms that include overestimation of power and morality; close-mindedness because of rationalising or stereotyping, as well as pressure towards conformity, which suppresses disagreement. (Yes, this sounds like the entire Brexit campaign.)

There was no lack of ability, expertise and experience among captains of the lost royal navy fleet; the generals who oversaw the failed Bay of Pigs invasion; the Nasa scientists who ignored their own protocols for a shuttle launch; or the captain of the doomed KLM Flight 4805. These were all bright people. But the most dangerous cause of groupthink is thinking, ‘Doesn’t apply to me, I’m too smart’. This complacency is the cause of susceptibility to grievous errors.

Bright, well-educated people are particularly vulnerable to groupthink, precisely because they know so much that they are often unaware of what they do not know. Education and expertise can create susceptibility.

First contact between the indigenous peoples of the Americas and the early European explorers wiped out centuries’ old very sophisticated civilisations who had no immunity against many simple viruses, such as smallpox and flu. Prior to the arrival of the Conquistadors, these people had no idea that they were so vulnerable.

Today there are international organisations — such as the World Health Organisation — who have specialists who constantly study and monitor for the potential emergence of any comparable disease that could become a pandemic. Similarly, in the field of information technology, there are organisations and businesses that seek to protect the world from all manner of computer-virus attacks. The lessons about contagion have been learned. Or have they?

Groupthink is a vulnerability that creates a vulnerability with equivalent destructiveness to any biological or electronic virus. What do we do to protect ourselves from the emergence of disastrous decisions based on social media?

Ireland has one of the EU’s highest levels of smartphone penetration — 90pc of adults own one, compared to the UK’s 85pc. We check those smartphones 57 times a day, on average, compared to the EU daily average of 41 times, according to a recent Deloitte report. We are a connected people, but to what and to who? Are we communicating widely — or just isolated in a group who only think like us?

In this context we should worry about the common usage of social-media terms such as ‘Echo Chamber’; ‘Hive Mind’ and ‘Filter

Bubble’ — because these are all symptomatic of the existence of the isolated rationalising and resultant close-mindedness that are fertile breeding grounds for groupthink.

We should also worry about the emergence of a stream of slogans that are starting to appear with greater frequency that include ‘for the many not the few’ or ‘the science is settled’ or stereotyping name-calling such as ‘Boomers’ or ‘Deniers’.

Add to these symptoms the mobbing by online activists who exhibit classic overestimation of power and morality, stereotyping of those who disagree, as well as pressure towards conformity, and the conditions emerge for a perfect storm of groupthink.

On the basis of this evidence, it quickly becomes apparent that groupthink is becoming evident on a very large scale — driven by social media. Small, well-educated, highly connected and homogeneous countries like Ireland are particularly vulnerable.

Recall that education is no protection against groupthink. Ireland has one of the world’s highest levels of population having third-level education (56pc) — compared to Italy 27.7pc, Germany 32.2pc, US 49.4pc and UK 50.8pc.

Contrary to expectations, high levels of basic third-level education increases the potential for groupthink, because it increases the homogeneity of thinking and the associated patterns of decision-making.

Ireland is now a society where large numbers have strongly-held opinions that have arisen from a selective set of infrequently challenged liberal arts concepts and methods.

The ability to carry out critical assessment of data, sources and methods seems to be increasingly confined to the more advanced levels of the sciences — who play an increasingly small part of the commentariat.

On balance, Ireland already has many of the necessary bulwarks against ‘runaway groupthink’ including an independent Central Bank and the Fiscal Advisory Council — as well as strong-voiced, independent agencies such as the ESRI and the National Economic and Social Council. Historically, advice from such agencies has proven to have limited influence, during the onset of the madness of crowds, that characterises the latter stages of economic cycles — such as the Celtic Tiger.

It is sobering to recall that such excesses happened before the advent of the smartphones — the first iPhone was only released in 2007. We are unprepared for the scale, speed and severity of wrong-headedness of the social-media driven groupthink that will amplify the excesses of the next bout of collective madness.

More than ever before, our whole world is susceptible to groupthink, and we in Ireland are particularly so, because of our combination of openness, small size and high levels of education.

To minimise this threat, we need to cherish the Devil’s Advocates, sceptics and contrarians among us, we must habitually consider alternatives and try to carry out rigorous appraisals of critical decisions.

Most critically, we must seek the views of outsiders — those who tell us what we need to hear, instead of what we want to hear.

These outside views will never lead us, that is why we elect governments, but we do need sceptics, in frequent little doses, to inoculate us against the contagion of complacency, so that we won’t be susceptible to groupthink.