Who goes first? Martin and Varadkar have a lot to lose
There are advantages for the leaders of FF and FG in taking first turn as Taoiseach — but dangers too, writes
WHO goes first, Varadkar or Martin? The answer could turn out to be crucial not only to the futures of Fine Gael and Fianna Fail but, ultimately, the direction of the country into this decade, the next and beyond.
If both were asked, they would publicly say the important issue is not who should be Taoiseach first but agreeing a programme for government with the Green Party. Behind the scenes, though, deep consideration is being given to the question, and with good reason.
The assumption is that Micheal Martin will go first. From his point of view, there is at least one pressing reason he should but several why he should not.
The situation is similar but somewhat different for Leo Varadkar — an obvious reason he should remain Taoiseach, and several why he should temporarily step aside to allow the Fianna Fail leader to step into the office first.
The obvious reason for Varadkar to go first is that it would provide the country with a measure of continuity into the next phase of the battle against coronavirus. The importance of good working relationships between a Taoiseach, health authorities, scientific advisers and the business community, not to mention the public, should not be underestimated.
Whatever the tensions said to exist between some of these authorities, it would seem more sensible for Varadkar to continue now than for all concerned to have to forge relationships with another personality as Taoiseach.
To continue in office would also allow the Fine Gael leader to finish what he started, and offers him the chance to build a personal legacy with fiveplus unbroken years as Taoiseach — the political leader who saw Ireland through its biggest health and economic crisis in 100 years, at the end of which he will still be a young man with various options in front of him.
The pressing reason for Martin to go first is almost entirely personal to him. In short, take the opportunity while it is going: he would get to be Taoiseach for two and a half years.
Should he choose not to go first, the risk is that potential Fianna Fail rivals will use that period to attempt to remove him as leader, and position themselves as Taoiseach-in-waiting, thereby denying Martin the opportunity altogether.
After everything he has contributed to the party that outcome may seem fanciful, although the risk remains, particularly should the new government prove unpopular from the off, if (or when) the public reacts badly to measures to be introduced to deal with the economic fallout from Covid-19.
Against such a backlash, Martin’s internal rivals will be minded to make their move, as was the case when Eamon Gilmore led Labour during the austerity years, and when a deeply unpopular Enda Kenny was forced to stand aside in his second term.
Alongside this, the potential also exists for the Greens to cut and run early, thereby denying the rotation of Taoiseach at all.
Were Martin to go first, Fianna Fail could also have an orderly leadership transition in government, as did Fine Gael, should he step down as leader, as expected, after a period as Taoiseach and allow somebody else to lead Fianna Fail into the next election.
The main reason for both to consider standing back and allowing the other go first are party political, but no less important for the future direction of the country for all that.
The next two years will prove difficult in government, after which the country will begin to emerge from the tunnel of economic and social disorder caused by coronavirus and into a bright, brave and new ‘green deal’ future.
The first Taoiseach will be associated with the disorder, the second with a country reborn, or at least out the other end of the tunnel. Therefore, to be a reluctant Taoiseach will probably be an advantage.
For a third of the electorate the answer to the question of who goes first is almost entirely irrelevant. For this minority, there is little to distinguish either party from the other.
The result of the election in February shows this view is growing more persuasive in the minds of the electorate, who see the answer to the question of who goes first as being akin to two bald men fighting over a comb.
During the unlamented confidence and supply arrangement, by and large, when Fine Gael increased opinion poll support so did Fianna Fail, and when the then main government party lost support, so too did Fianna Fail.
In retrospect, therefore, it was predictable that both would suffer reverses in the election itself, in favour of Sinn Fein, the Greens and other smaller parties.
In any event, this tells us that for a significant but growing proportion of the electorate there is little or nothing to separate Fine Gael and Fianna Fail. Now they are about to formally enter a coalition government together that view may become more reinforced.
There is a belief the Greens, should they join the coalition, will ultimately turn out to be the fall guys. Indeed, precedent predicts such. The truth is nobody knows for sure at this stage how the public will ultimately respond at the next election.
For example, will the national spirit engendered by the coronavirus crisis have entirely disappeared by then, or will voters reward the parties who saw the country through the crisis, or punish those who introduced difficult policy measures to deal with the fallout?
That said, there is another school of thought that one of the main parties — Fine Gael or Fianna Fail — will ultimately suffer more than the other. So it is reasonable to expect clear water will be put between them next time.
Which party emerges in better shape from the battleground to contend with Sinn Fein in five years’ time is important, therefore, to the direction of the country afterwards.
Indeed, who goes first is not only the first major decision to be taken by the new government but, longer term, potentially the most important.
Fine Gael enters this government on the back of two poor elections, with fewer seats than Fianna Fail, but with a clearer brand: a rightof-centre party which appeals to the comfortable middleclasses, albeit a relatively smaller proportion of the overall electorate.
Fianna Fail enters on the back of a poor election, but with more seats than Fine Gael, with its identity somewhat muddled: the more centrist of the two, mostly leaning to the left these days, but with an eye to the right, where voters still do not trust it after the last crash.
For Fine Gael, the potential is there to consolidate, but also the risk it will be nudged further right by a newly confident Fianna Fail to become, potentially, the new Progressive Democrats.
For Fianna Fail, the potential is to grow in government as a catch-all centrist party again, but also the risk it will be squeezed on the left by a more established Sinn Fein in opposition, and on the right by a consolidated Fine Gael.
The answer to these questions will dictate the future direction of the country for the remainder of this decade and into the next, and Micheal Martin and the Fianna Fail party would seem to be in the most precarious position of all.
‘The first will be associated with the disorder’