One gamble has paid off, but now Martin has a fight against the odds
The new Taoiseach faces many challenges over the next two-and-a-half years and will have to take very unpopular decisions, writes Philip Ryan
HE played his hand, the gamble paid off and now he’s Taoiseach. Micheal Martin spent years holding his cards close to his chest. It can infuriate some of the parliamentary party members whom he expects to blindly back him while being kept in the dark on most of his plans.
They regularly find themselves in front of cameras or microphones defending a party position they have just been briefed on, or in some circumstances they knew noting about.
Over the last nine years, all of his big decisions have been closely guarded secrets. Most TDs were caught off guard ahead of the Dail speech where he announced his support for the removal of the Eighth Amendment of the Constitution.
It was a very personal decision for Martin who previously came down on the pro-life side of the abortion debate. There was no parliamentary party debate before his announcement and no briefing of party members.
The vast majority of his party intended on voting against the proposed constitutional change but Martin read the public mood and decided it was time to end the misery of the thousands of women forced to travel to the UK for abortions every year.
He also publicly endorsed the same-sex marriage campaign when some in his party warned against the move.
In both instances it was a gamble to back the progressive side of a debate while leading a party still supported by a conservative voter base.
Many of the new Fianna Fail TDs elected in 2016 believed they benefited from Fine Gael’s decision to enact the Protection of Life During Pregnancy legislation.
They thought it was political suicide to turn on the conservative vote that put them into the Dail. Martin gave his parliamentary party members a free vote on the legislation but Fianna Fail, the party, was firmly behind the successful campaign to change the country’s abortion laws.
It’s hard to measure if this gamble paid off. On one hand, several TDs who voted No lost their seats, but so did some who voted Yes. Martin’s stance and by proxy Fianna Fail’s decision to follow a more progressive path may have lost them votes with one section of society.
Fianna Fail and Fine Gael learned after the last general election that there are no votes in following liberal youth causes. The younger generation of voter who demands change does not seem to be convinced by Fianna Fail or Fine Gael’s shift to the left on social issues.
Another gamble by Martin was the confidence and supply agreement he agreed with Enda Kenny.
The arrangement was a means to an end after the electorate signalled the end of the two-and-a-half party system and elected a record number of Independent TDs to the Dail.
Fianna Fail was still in recovery mode in 2016. However, Martin defied expectations at the ballot boxes and his constant dismissal of opinion polls was proven to be justified.
The hope was that Fianna Fail’s act of generosity in facilitating the Fine Gael-led minority government would go some way towards restoring the public’s trust in the party after it oversaw the collapse of the economy.
Martin had also developed an image of being an honest broker, a man of his word.
He wanted the electorate to see him as a leader who put his country before his party.
Most analysis of this particular gamble would say it did not pay off. The selfless gesture by the second biggest party in the country at the time meant there was no reward for their TDs.
Fine Gael and the Independents were voted into office while Fianna Fail spent four years trying to criticise them while also propping them up in the Dail when needs must. Fianna Fail claimed it was the main Opposition party but its TDs allowed budgets to pass and saved ministers from being sacked by abstaining on votes.
The only time they really threw their weight around was during the controversy surrounding garda whistleblower Maurice McCabe which resulted in then Tanaiste Frances Fitzgerald resigning. She was subsequently cleared of any wrongdoing by an inquiry which would question the need for Fianna Fail to pull its support on that occasion.
The confidence and supply deal was always going to be a difficult one to explain to voters and ultimately they didn’t buy it.
They did not accept that Fianna Fail was not outside of the tent. Rather they saw them as part of a cosy establishment arrangement with Fine Gael.
If electoral gains are the measurement of political success, then the confidence and supply gamble did not pay off.
But by the same token, Micheal Martin was yesterday elected Taoiseach by 93 TDs, which is a sizeable majority by most standards.
So it is fair to say his near decade-long journey to become Taoiseach has paid off — even if it is in a coalition government with Fine Gael and the Green Party.
The gamble on the confidence and supply idea might not have been bought by the public but it will have made it easier for Fine Gael to trust Fianna Fail and vice versa.
With his party at 14pc in the opinion polls, you could say it is not much of a gamble going into government with two other parties.
However, it could be the biggest gamble he has ever taken and losing this particular bet could have devastating consequences for his party.
It is hard to see the newly formed three-party Government being particularly popular with the public in the coming years.
There will be many challenges and very unpopular decisions to be taken. There may be a second wave of the virus, the pandemic welfare supports will need to be unwound and many people will be unemployed.
The new Government is putting a lot of hope in rebooting the economy through significant investment in capital projects but everyone can’t be a builder.
Fianna Fail will need to have unprecedented success in restoring the economy over the next two-and-a-half years to make gains on Fine Gael. Leo Varadkar’s party popularity (37pc) will recede over time, but he is starting off from a higher base due to his handling of the pandemic.
There is a certain benefit to being the deputy partner in this arrangement and Varadkar can use it to his advantage by reaching out to Fine Gael’s traditional Middle Ireland base over the coming years.
The programme for government and the pandemic has pushed the country towards more centre-left policies and the new coalition has made a lot of expensive promises it will struggle to keep.
Martin could find himself defending criticisms over the lack of progress from the Greens on one hand while fending off Fine Gael complaints about left-leaning policies on the other.
Not unlike the confidence and supply agreement, Martin runs the risk of again falling between two stools without making electorate gains for his troubles.