NONE OF THIS CHAOS REALLY MATTERS TO MARTIN
Voters have too much sense to be poring over the events that led up to Barry Cowen’s sacking, writes Shane Coleman
Shane Coleman
‘ADUMPSTER fire’, ‘a shambles’, ‘chaotic’ — just some of the terms used around Leinster House and in the media to describe the Government’s first three weeks in office.
With the sacking of Barry Cowen coming on top of squabbling over who got (and who didn’t get) what in the ministerial carve-up, there have been headlines about rifts in Fianna Fail and powerful enemies waiting in the long grass for a chance to scupper Micheal Martin.
In the words of the Harry Enfield ‘Scousers’ characters, everybody — political correspondents included — needs to “calm down, calm down”.
Has it been a good start for the Government, particularly Fianna Fail? No. But there is an even more resounding ‘no’ answer to the question as to whether it will have an impact on this coalition ultimately being successful.
None of the events of the past three weeks will remotely matter when it comes to the next general election.
In fact, none of it will be remembered by the vast majority of the electorate in a month or two.
The Barry Cowen controversy was embarrassing and a distraction for the Government. But the notion that voters are this weekend poring over the events that led up to Cowen’s sacking; wondering if a supposedly ‘damaged’ Taoiseach acted too slowly — or why he seemed to change his position between Tuesday afternoon and that night — is risible. The Opposition and the media may be doing that. The public are more detached.
If anything, Martin’s decisive — and pretty ruthless — action in dealing with the issue by dispatching an arguably unlucky Cowen to the backbenches might play well with voters, given the Taoiseach’s previous reputation as a bit of a ditherer.
The reality is that ministers resign or get sacked in every Dail term. Leinster House works itself into a near hysterical frenzy for a few days and voters shrug their shoulders and get on with real life.
The sensational resignation of Ray Burke just four months into Bertie Ahern’s first Fianna Fail-Progressive Democrat coalition had no impact on that government’s electoral prospects. Nor did another high-profile resignation, that of Progressive Democrat minister of state Bobby Molloy. Though it came just a few weeks before the 2002 election, the Progressive Democrats still doubled their seat tally and Fianna Fail came within a few hundred votes of an overall majority.
Huffing and puffing aside, Fianna Fail TDs know the score. They have sympathy for Barry Cowen on a personal level. But they know it wasn’t tenable that he could continue as minister without making a statement to the House on the garda report of the incident.
When Cowen refused to do so, there was only one possible outcome.
In normal circumstances perhaps the talk of rifts and Martin creating hostages to fortune because of his ministerial appointments (and sacking) might be relevant. But these aren’t normal circumstances. Martin is going to be Taoiseach until the end of 2022 and then he’s gone, not just as Taoiseach but presumably as leader of Fianna Fail as well.
There’s little or nothing any malcontents can do, other than nurse their grievances for the next 30 months. For them, Martin is untouchable. He doesn’t need to worry about currying favour or keeping whingey TDs onside and that gives Martin a freedom that no Taoiseach in modern times has enjoyed.
The lack of Fianna Fail party discipline on display over the past three weeks is a more real concern. Some degree of turmoil was inevitable, given the historic departure involved in going into government with Fine Gael (not to mention the lack of ministerial jobs on offer). Presumably things will settle down in time. But if the sniping was to continue, it would be a problem for Fianna Fail and whoever takes over from Martin. Either the party TDs hang together or they will hang separately come election time.
The same holds for the three coalition parties. No government can afford a reputation of being accident-prone, stumbling from mini-crisis to mini-crisis. While it would have wished for a better start, this Government is a long way off that territory.
Ultimately though, it won’t be judged by a volatile electorate on what happens in the political bubble. For most voters, what happens in Leinster House, stays in Leinster House — and the only Cowengate they’re interested in is the baby food. The new coalition will succeed or fail on real issues: its record on Covid, the economy, housing and health.
On Covid and the economy, so much depends on luck. The same probably goes for health — a second wave of the coronavirus and all the reforms in the world won’t matter.
That leaves housing. Voters in their 20s and 30s, hardest hit economically by the lockdown remember, will rightly expect big and quick progress in this area.
Crack that conundrum and the typical bumps and bruises of government will be but a media sideshow. If they build it, voters may yet come.
‘Leinster House works itself into a frenzy — yet most voters shrug their shoulders and get on with real life’