SO YOU’VE HAD THE JAB. NOW HOW ABOUT A ROADMAP TO REALITY?
A vaccine passport paves the way for a return to normality, writes
NOW that we have highly efficacious and safe vaccines given to millions of people across the world, with a lot more to come, the question immediately moves on to: what next?
It’s very important that people who have been vaccinated are given a clear roadmap out of the restrictions currently being imposed. Otherwise there will be a breach of trust.
People have been constantly told that it’s vaccines that will save us. There are even reports of ‘vaccine euphoria’ in the US. The leading immunologist, Tony Fauci, has said: “If I’m fully vaccinated, and my daughter comes in the house, and she’s fully vaccinated, do we really need to have the stringent public-health measures that we would if it was a stranger who was not vaccinated?”
He said it was “common sense” that “you don’t have to be as stringent in your public-health measures” once people are vaccinated.
But he also said he’s waiting. Guidance is coming very soon from the Centres for Disease Control and Prevention in the US for those who have been vaccinated. The White House’s chief medical adviser said on Tuesday that he would expect less stringent guidance to come soon, given the progress with the US vaccination programme.
This update should
“relax the stringency of the recommendations” in the first phase for people in the same family who have been vaccinated.
PRICE OF REOPENING
Many parts of the US are relatively normal anyway, with bars, gyms and restaurants open, even though there are restrictions. The US seems to have reluctantly accepted a level of illness and death and is waiting for the huge vaccination programme to do its job and lower both.
In a move that President Joe Biden labelled “Neanderthal”, the governor of Texas, Greg Abbott, announced that Texas will open “100pc” next week and has lifted the mask-wearing mandate.
Doctors there have called this move “wildly premature”, in a state where 44,378 people have died. On a per capita basis, this is over 10 times the death rate of Ireland. This is a state where public health measures weren’t imposed as zealously as here, either because of a lack of political will or because people wouldn’t or couldn’t comply, for economic or political reasons.
Some changes for those vaccinated have been issued in the US already. People who have been vaccinated do not need to quarantine if they have come into contact with an infected person.
But Dr Fauci is being cautious. He said vaccinated people shouldn’t go to restaurants yet, or attend the theatre, and that it would be better to wait until the autumn before theatres and restaurants reopen, when the vaccination campaign will be well under way. The reason for the caution is we don’t know yet whether vaccination stops you spreading the virus.
If we let our guard down too soon, the pandemic could take off like a rocket again. We know full well how it can get out of control, given our experience in December. And the more transmissible UK variant doesn’t help.
As ever, we need to get as many people vaccinated as soon as possible to decrease illness and hospitalisation. If the vaccine stops spread too — and the signs are good — we can be even more optimistic about reopening.
VACCINE CERTS
One thing that will come, and maybe as soon as
March, is a vaccine passport or certificate to say you’ve been vaccinated. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said as much last week: “As for the question of what the digital green passport could look like, we will submit a legislative proposal in March.”
The information could be automatically linked to your actual passport. Or it might be on an entirely different document. Leo Varadkar has previously said Ireland is developing a vaccine passport that would allow those who have received the vaccine to travel. When it comes to permission to travel, this is no different to the yellow fever vaccine — proof of which is needed for travel to many countries.
In Israel, people who have had two doses of any Covid-19 vaccine can now get a “green pass” to show they’ve been vaccinated.
This allows people entry into gyms, hotels and concerts. More than three million Israelis have one. Roxana Saberi, an Israeli music fan, went to a concert and said afterwards: “Finally! All the way in the car, I sang, ‘back to life, back to reality’.”
A key issue for Ms von der Leyen and the EU is how to bring back the tourism and hospitality sectors. Another summer where these are not open will be devastating. Pressure is coming from Mediterranean countries; for example, 25pc of the Greek economy depends on tourism.
Some cruises and airlines have already announced that travellers will need proof of immunisation to board. If a vaccine certificate will get you on to a cruise ship or plane, can it be used to get you into a hotel or holiday resort, provided everyone else is vaccinated?
Countries like Greece may well decide that people in tourism and hospitality move up the priority list for vaccination, in order to bring their businesses back.
DISCRIMINATION
The idea of vaccine certificates is leading to warnings of discrimination against people who don’t want a vaccine, or those who can’t get one for medical reasons, or because there’s not enough supply. If availability is not a concern (and by summer in Ireland, it shouldn’t be), then there may be fewer objections, because vaccine certificates will be for the greater good.
Whatever way you look at it, vaccine certificates will come, certainly for travel and most likely to gain access to gyms, restaurants, theatres and perhaps pubs.
These are places of the highest risk, but we can’t keep them closed forever. We will most likely have to accept a certain level of risk if we reopen them, and vaccination is a huge de-risker, because it dramatically reduces illness and death.
Vaccination will also hopefully stop the spread of the virus and therefore greatly limit the chance of the whole thing taking off again. We still should be cautious, however, until most are vaccinated and because of the unknowns in relation to viral transmission and the risk of new variants emerging in those who aren’t yet vaccinated.
Because vaccine certificates will be used in the UK, Europe, the US and most likely in many other places, Ireland needs to be ready to issue them. We don’t want Ireland falling behind and being the laggard.
If we delay, it will likely compromise the reopening of hospitality and the ability of Irish people to travel to see family overseas or to welcome them home to Ireland again.
By autumn 2021, we therefore have a tantalising prospect. First, all adults in Ireland will have had access to vaccines, which will be in plentiful supply by then.
Booster shots containing variants will also be administered to older people and those in vulnerable categories. A vaccination campaign for those under 18 should have begun, subject to clinical trials currently running. There will be vaccine certificates to allow people to re-engage with each other, to allow the economy to start to recover and the reopening of international travel.
The only substantial threats to this are the vaccination campaign being slower because of supply, and the risk from new variants. Some travel restrictions may have to be in place for longer, but the price of that is the reopening of our country internally.
We now have the real prospect of our country being restored to something close to what it was before.
‘Ireland needs to be ready to issue vaccine certs. We don’t want to be the laggard’