Our political landscape is about to be changed forever
● Local contests can give us some pointers towards the outcome of the upcoming Dáil election
They were putting up the posters outside our house last week. No party activists of course, just a succession of listless contractors surveying the early birds and calculating how many more posters the lamppost could accommodate.
Old faces, fresh hopefuls, Euro candidates, lost souls from other areas — they festoon the leafy avenue now.
The rustle of those posters going up the poles was the first stirring of an electoral year that could be more consequential than we yet realise.
The local contests will provide shaky pointers to the outcome of a general election which many expect in late autumn. And the Euros will furnish the backdrop to the selection of our next European commissioner, which will see a Fianna Fáil heavyweight depart the national stage in late summer. That, in turn, will have a major bearing on the big contest, whenever that comes. One way or another, the political map faces big changes in 2024.
We all know what happened in the local elections in 2019. Fianna Fáil had an encouraging result, particuThere larly in Dublin. Fine Gael weaknesses were exposed, with its former Munster heartland glowing amber. There was a resurgence for the Greens, a recovery for Labour, a big tally for Independents and a respectable 19 seats nationally for the Social Democrats first-timers.
But the big story was Sinn Féin. A loss of 79 seats cut its national complement by half. It was a stunning reverse for a party unaccustomed to setbacks, and expecting gains, and has never been adequately explained.
Of course, more by luck than judgement, the party went on to sweep the boards in the general election just over six months later, highlighting once more the gulf between discerning voters’ priorities and preoccupations between the two contests.
(As an aside, it was baffling to see one prominent election expert in the UK last week ignoring that distinction, and confidently predicting a modest nine-point advantage for Labour on the back of the local result over the Tories and a clutch of independents who won’t feature in the national poll. They preferred that indicator over a solid series of surveys that give Keir Starmer an advantage in the high 20s — and thus they prompted unconvincing warnings of a “hung parliament” from Rishi Sunak.)
Back home, in the capital at least, Sinn Féin has woken up, and is fielding a record number of local candidates. It’s not a strategy that’s without risk, as many of them may not stay the course long enough to soak up transfers. The party is also at sixes and sevens over immigration which could well be a dominant issue.
is ample evidence that Independents are poised to take advantage of the deep unease across the country over the Government’s handling of the increasing wave of asylum-seekers — and Sinn Féin’s populist instincts are vying with vestiges of its veneer of liberalism in a debate that has yet to fully play out.
This time around, it is unlikely there will be a happy outcome for Fianna Fáil. In 2019 its local vote tally was 27pc; its poll numbers have now sunk to 16pc. That could cost 100 of its 270-odd council seats.
Some of that shortfall will be made up by a more robust Fine Gael showing, but not much.
The result for Fianna Fáil could have major implications for Micheál Martin’s leadership. Could a really poor outcome prompt a heave?
Inconveniently, the fallout will coincide with the run up to the selection of our next European commissioner. I expect that to be Michael McGrath, but a poor campaign and a poor result could put pressure on his constituency colleague to pack his bags instead. And what then for Fianna Fáil?
Labour did well in the capital but now faces an unexpected dilemma. Half of its complement of councillors, all women, have decided not to stand again — so a third of all female councillors are throwing in the towel.
The indispensable Dublin Inquirer has done great work on this issue. Among the reasons cited by the departing representatives include online abuse, hybrid meetings (“I haven’t seen some of my colleagues since before Covid”), lack of positive results to repeated representations, and family reasons (“Three-hour council meetings starting at 6.15pm aren’t exactly family-friendly.”)
There are suggestions that female councillors face particular difficulties in dealing with officials.
“Dublin City Council is dominated by a male culture, every part of it,” according to one of their (male) colleagues. It is certainly noteworthy that while nearly half of the councillors at Dublin City Council are women, 62pc of the officials are men.
Clearly something is amiss here.
Dublin City Council is dominated by a male culture
Outside Dublin, of course, the picture is brighter for councillors, who find it easier to operate and cause a stir in the smaller bodies around the country. But all parties have reported difficulties in recruiting fresh blood for these elections, making the outcome harder to discern.
Looking to the national picture, Micheál Martin will have to carefully manage expectations in a falling market and keep an eye on the campaign lest mismanagement embolden his rivals.
That will require close attention to the hot-button issue of immigration, a challenge for every party.
Martin has been sure-footed so far, but dealing with the Independent candidates, some of whom are shaping up to stand on platforms that are divisive and in some cases downright racist, will cause problems not just for Sinn Féin.
He is surely secure in his leadership of Fianna Fáil now and will probably lead his party into the next general election. But he must guard against any unexpected disasters.
If Fianna Fáil has to choose a new leader in the months before the general election it would be massively destabilising for the Coalition and hugely complicate the negotiations to form the next government.