UNCERTAIN TIMES AHEAD

The winds of change swept through the country in gale force fashion on Sunday as Storm Ciara crossed the island, it was Storm Sinn Fein which had the country in a spin.

No one, even Sinn Fein, saw this coming at the start of the campaign, as the party was bruised following the 2019 local and European elections where they lost seats. Opinion polls during the campaign pointed to a recovery for the party nationally, with each successive poll giving the party more and more encouragement that their message was resonating with public, tired and fed up of the austerity of recent years.

Change and hope, were the two messages to carry the day.

The public wanted a change of government, of direction and of policy and more especially, they wanted hope, hope that the housing crisis would be ended, hope that they could afford a house for themselves and their family, hope that crippling childcare costs could be addressed, hope that the daily trudgery of commuting to and from work could be alleviated, hope that the trolley crisis would come to an end, that the health crisis would come to an end and hope that they could retire at aged 65 and not have to work for a further two or three years.

Sinn Fein plugged into that cry for hope and for change and their policies ticked those primal boxes.

We’ve seen Donald Trump offer hope to Americans with his ‘Make America Great Again’ slogan, a lightning rod in 2016.

Across the water, Boris Johnson and indeed, Jeremy Corbyn in the most recent General Election campaign just before Christmas, offered hope with manifestos pledging unprecedented public spending on capital projects and the recruitment of thousands of additional police officers, nurses and doctors. Both the Conservative and Labour recognised that after a decade of austerity and the morass of Brexit, the public were tired and needed a glimmer of hope that a better future lay ahead.

Ultimately the public chose Boris Johnson’s vision of a future UK post-Brexit.

Whether he can actually deliver on his promises remains to be seen.

But clearly here, the public were not swayed by the steady Eddie approach. Steady as she goes was not want they wanted to hear and Sinn Fein’s more ambitious plans and the fact that they have yet to carry the responsibility of government meant that the public took a leap of faith with them.

Now, Sinn Fein have to deliver upon that trust they have been given.

Will they enter government or sit in opposition waiting to capitalise further at the next General Election when they could field more candidates and possibly enter government as the lead party in a coalition where they would get more of their policies Implemented.

Their narrative about Fianna Fail’s connections to developers, Fine Gael’s to landlords, about vulture funds buying up houses and outbidding ordinary members of the public, huge corporations not paying a big enough share of taxation and about our bailed out banks not paying any corporation tax resonated very deeply with the voters.

While the economy might have recovered not all of Irish society has and the public turned their back on the proposed remedies to those issues offered by Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil in this election.

It has been a remarkable journey for Sinn Fein in recent decades, from a party with no representation in the Dail to now being as big as Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael.

They remain beyond the pale for many for their association with the IRA, but as time moves along they have promoted highly effective and capable politicians such as Mary Lou McDonald, Pearse Doherty, Eoin O Broinn and Louise O’Reilly.

Those front bench spokespersons and others are highly effective in the Dail Chamber, in the media and

Ruairí Ó Murchú and his dad Gerry celebrate Sinn Féin’s success locally and nationally.

on the campaign trail. Their energy levels and commitment are off the charts and something that the established big two cannot match.

Sinn Fein have made the quantum leap into the big time in Irish politics. The Labour Party have been close to the big time before but were burned by their periods in government and have yet to recover from their last term in office, post the 2011 General Election.

Where next for Sinn Fein? The

coming days and weeks will tell. Will they follow the well worn path trod by Labour, Progressive Democrats, Democratic Left and the Greens in becoming a junior coalition partner that is afterwards mauled by the public or can they forge a different path, enter government and deliver upon their promises and be rewarded for doing so. History and realism suggests that junior coalition partners, here and elsewhere, always pay a price for their time in government.

Perhaps Sinn Fein will sit it out this time, hoping that whatever government is formed will not last a full-term and that they will then be poised and ready to make further gains at the next election, when they could realistically aim to be the lead party in whatever coalition is formed with Mary Lou McDonald as Taoiseach who will initiate a border poll on Irish unity.

Uncertain times ahead in unchartered waters but certainly interesting.