Based on current form, Wee should anticipate victory

FOR all the positivity generated by Louth’s impressive Leinster final performance, qualification from the group phase of the All-Ireland series will be the most tangible gauge of progression for Ger Brennan’s team.

The Reds lost all three matches in the Sam Maguire Cup competition last season but approach Saturday night’s derby duel with Meath under a great deal of expectation.

Running Dublin to four points in the provincial decider was a marked improvement from the 5-21 to 0-15 humiliation suffered at Croke Park 12 months ago, but Louth are seeking to move beyond being satisfied with moral victories, and failure to advance from the preliminary stage of the forthcoming championship would equate to major disappointment. Indeed, Brennan has admitted that losing to Meath would tarnish the relative feat of running the Dubs closer than any Leinster finalist since the Royals in 2013.

They will also have learnt the importance of a positive result in the opening round, which makes advancing to the knockout tie all the more likely. Cork pipped the Wee County by two points at Pairc Tailteann in sweltering conditions last summer, an outcome that essentially baked Louth’s chances of extending their participation in the championship.

For they were faced by Mayo and Kerry in subsequent outings, losing by one and then 28 points respectively, and though the prospect of battling Monaghan in round two isn’t as daunting as a trip to Castlebar heaving with fanatical locals, the likelihood of taking something from their jaunt to Clones would be far greater having already overcome Meath.

Based on form over the past two months or so, Louth should expect to defeat Colm O’Rourke’s men. They held a vice-like grip over the sides’ National League tussle in February until mid-way through the second half, conceding a four-point lead and deservedly being beaten. But they are playing much better now and Brennan seems to have proven himself to members of the panel - and indeed those supporting the team - who possibly questioned his ability to succeed Mickey Harte.

Dan Corcoran, Craig Lennon, Liam Jackson, Ciaran Byrne and Bevan Duffy have all since returned to action, while Niall Sharkey is further down the line in terms of conditioning following a later return to the fold.

The manager has also indicated his tactical prowess over the last two matches - against Kildare and Dublin. Having opted for a fairly consistent starting XV since the beginning of the National League through to the provincial quarter-final tie with Wexford, Brennan made four changes to the team that lined out in opposition to the Lilies, handing starts to Lennon, Sharkey, Paul Mathews and Corcoran.

While his decision to employ Ciaran Downey at midfield has worked a treat in terms of growing the Newtown Blues clubman’s influence over proceedings, allowing him to apply his creative qualities without firstly needing to escape the clutches of a tight-marking defender.

And the Brennan caught the Dubs by surprise with a lowly-set block of bodies protecting the zone in which the All-Ireland champions tend to score most prolifically, reducing the space they had to operate in when going forward and forcing them to take on with uncharacteristic shots from low percentage angles.

There was an efficiency in Louth’s attacking play as well and an impressive method in how they collected practically all of their own restarts - bar, crucially, one in the second half that yielded a goal chance which Dublin took.

As one neutral observer opined after the match, when comparing the respective efforts of Meath and Louth to downing the Dubs, the Reds had a strategy that they stuck to and believed in, whereas there was very little trace of a plan for how the Royals were going to cope with the Sky Blues, who blew their old foes away.

Yet there must surely be benefit in O’Rourke and his selectors having more than a month to assess the situation and address the issues accordingly.

Improvement for Meath cannot boil down to another mid-table finish in Division 2, a year on from winning the Tailteann Cup. If they fail to get a fourth game in the All-Ireland series, the term cannot be reflected on with much fondness, particularly if it involves a first championship loss against Louth since 1975.

The sight of a Meath jersey can have debilitating consequences for those wearing red, and while the Wee County would seem to be in a much better position at present, there tends to be very little in the difference when the North East rivals convene for battle.

Louth may be bullish, but there is equally as much suspicion as confidence given the Royals’ track record of coming out on the winning side of these affairs.

BRENNAN SEEMS TO HAVE PROVEN HIMSELF TO MEMBERS OF THE PANEL - AND INDEED THOSE SUPPORTING THE TEAM - WHO POSSIBLY QUESTIONED HIS ABILITY TO SUCCEED MICKEY HARTE