QUOTED AT PROHIBITIVE ODDS OF 1/200 TO TAKE SEAT Crowley’s a sure thing

THE MESSAGE from bookie Paddy Power to anyone thinking of placing a wager on Fianna Fail's Brian Crowley to regain his seat in Europe could not be plainer - don't bother.

While the race to top the poll in the other two Euro constituencies might be tight, Paddy Power is in no doubt that Crowley will comfortably top the Ireland South poll.

They have quoted odds of 1/200 on Crowley to regain the seat he has held since 1994, making him the longest serving Irish MEP.

The bookie has also quoted odds of 1/100 on Crowley to top the poll, bearing out the findings of a Sunday Independent/Millward Brown poll that predicted the Bandon MEP will share a whopping 32% of first preference votes.

With Crowley's re-election as poll topper a virtual certainty, the focus moves onto the remaining candidates with Paddy Power offering odds of 1/33 on Fine Gael's Sean Kelly to win a seat, followed by Sinn Fein's Liadh Ní Riada at 1/12.

Interestingly, they have quoted Ní Riada at 8/1 to top the poll and Kelly at 16/1.

The Sunday Independent/Millward Brown poll found it equally difficult to separate the pair, predicting Ní Riada to win 16% of the first preference votes and Kelly 15%.

With both the bookies and the pollsters in broad agreement on the three frontrunners, predictions for the fourth spot are not quite as cut and dry.

Paddy Power has quoted Fine Gael's Deirdre Clune at 1/3 to win a set, her party colleague Simon Harris at 2/1, Labour's Phil Prendergast

IFA held a meeting recently in Mallow for farmers in Munster, to meet with their candidates in the European Elections, and question them on issues of importance to agriculture ahead of the elections at the end of May. Pictured following the meeting are, from left; Sean Kelly, Fine Gael; Deirdre Clune, Fine Gael; Tim O’Leary, IFA Deputy President; Liadh Ni Riada, Sinn Fein; and Brian Crowley, Fianna Fail. at 4/1, the Green's Grace O'Sullivan at 8/1, Ballyhea independent Diarmuid O'Flynn at 9/1 and Fianna Fail's Kieran Hartley at 10/1.

The Sunday Independent/Millward Brown poll predicted Clune would win 10% of first preference votes, Harris 9%, Prendergast 6%, O'Sullivan and O'Flynn 4% each and Hartley 2%.

Of course, the deciding factor may well be the destination of Crowley's surplus, with Hartley likely to benefit the most, bringing him into contention.

Another train of thought might suggest that other Cork-based candidates could do well from Crowley's transfers, with many believing this could play into Clune's hands, or indeed O Riada.

Whatever happens on Friday, the count on Sunday promises to go right to the wire, keeping observers on the edge of their seats.