Kennedy and Apple’s Jade out to topple Buveur D’air
BACK in November Jack Kennedy was faced with having to bat away questions about Samcro’s Champion Hurdle credentials. It was early in the season after all and Kennedy’s reluctance to fuel speculation seemed justified when Samcro suffered a shock defeat to Bedrock at Down Royal.
Samcro was comprehensively beaten again in the Fighting Fifth by Buveur D’air in December, yet owner Michael O’Leary still insisted the Champion Hurdle was the target. Another poor performance followed at Leopardstown at Christmas - and with confirmation of a lung infection soon after - O’Leary’s two mile aspirations for Samcro were finally put to bed. Samcro may yet run at Cheltenham, but if he does it will most likely be at three miles.
Fast forward to today and Kennedy still finds himself heading to the Champion Hurdle with a horse in scintillating form, just not the horse everyone expected. Apple’s Jade is a 9/4 shot to topple Triple Crown seeking Buveur D’air and you won’t find many brave enough to take her on.
Apple’s Jade’s career certainly has a strong Kerry vibe to it. In her 13 wins to date, Bryan Cooper has won five times on the mare - including her amazing 41 length win at Aintree in 2016 - while Jack Kennedy has ridden Apple’s Jade to six victories.
The easiest thing to say about Apple’s Jade at the moment is that she’s in flying form; however, a less easy question to ponder is whether or not she’s good enough to win.
At Leopardstown in the Irish Champion Hurdle her win was 11 seconds faster than the course average on that day’s going (Good to Yielding). Buveur D’air’s annihilation of Samcro at Newcastle – on softer ground – was just 0.13 seconds slower than Apple’s Jade’s Leopardstown time.
Apple’s Jade is also year younger than Buveur D’air and she will have a 7Ib mare’s allowance to her advantage when they meet. Apple’s Jade made all in that Leopardstown race when destroying two previous Irish Champion Hurdle winners - Petit Muchior and Supasundee - and last year’s Cheltenham Champion Hurdle runner-up, Melon, by 16 lengths.
But I’m not convinced she has beaten much so far this season (which isn’t her fault). Tombstone’s recent win at Fairyhouse makes him the only real form horse to have finished behind her, Supasundee finished behind her twice but he looks more like a horse that’s clearing the pipes ahead of a challenge in the Stayers’ Hurdle over three miles. The only other horse of note at two miles in Ireland this season is the Willie Mullins’ trained Sharjah, who is yet to cross swords with Apple’s Jade. He might well be the eachway value in this race.
Buveur D’air hasn’t beaten much either and he has run in small fields (which is more to do with trainers ducking him, in fairness). His defeat to the mare Verdana Blue in the Christmas Hurdle at Kempton came as a shock. Even though Verdana Blue has now won four of her last seven races, I would be inclined to forgive her recent defeat at Kempton provided the ground comes up good at Cheltenham. If this happens she may well show that her Christmas win was no fluke.
While there is no question that Apple’s Jade is in the form of her life, she won’t have it all her own way in a front running role this time round. JP McManus may well include a tactical front-runner to take her on and try get her off rhythm in the hope his horse can steal it late on. The more pace there is up front, the better for Buveur D’air. However, I don’t think this will trouble her. In the Hatton’s Grace Hurdle in Fairyhouse she was aggressively taken on for the lead by Wicklow Brave - a former Ledger winner and no slow coach - but still won by 16 lengths. There wasn’t much opposition in behind her that day but she was ultra impressive all the same.
Apple’s Jade is a lot of things, but one thing she’s not is physically imposing. She must be able to take on the boys in a bustling field over a fast two miles in an undulating track. Will she be able to cope, physically? But here’s a sta- tistic for you while you’re mulling that one over: Apple’s Jade has now won her last three Grade 1s by an accumulative margin of over 62 lengths. A statistic not to be scoffed at.
The slight worry for me with Apple’s Jade is her
record over two miles since 2016 reads: 2221. As impressive as she was at the Dublin Racing Festival, there is still a feeling her best trips are over longer distances (2m.4f or 3m).
There is also the Mullins mare, Laurina to contend with. So far she’s untested and may well be the one who ends up grabbing the headlines. But on official ratings she still has around 16 lengths to find on the leading principles.
Nicky Henderson will have Buveur D’air spot on for his tilt at three-in-a-row as he looks to emulate the brilliant Istabraq. But all evidence suggests Apple’s Jade can shine provided she copes with the aforementioned scenarios.
All the talk has been about these two horses in the build up, but it wouldn’t surprise me if another horse should slip in under the radar. It hasn’t been a brilliant season for the two mile hurdling division, especially when one considers that Buveur D’air’s main challenger is a horse dropping back in distance for only her third start in three years over two miles. But Apple’s Jade is no ordinary horse this season.
One thing is for certain, if the cheers of encouragement in Dingle and around Kerry count for anything come next Tuesday afternoon, then Apple’s Jade is already a shoe in.