A general election in Ireland will be far more complex than Britain’s poll

AFTER British Prime Minister Boris Johnson finally won his battle to hold a General Election in the UK, it was interesting to see how many Government TD’s were clamouring for a vote on these shores. Seemingly, the logic among the Fine Gael backbenches is that as a Brexit deal has been done – though it still remains far from certain if it will be passed by parliament in Westminster – the time is right to end the widely loathed confidence and supply arrangement with Fianna Fáil.

That Micheál Martin’s party is on the ropes over the Dáil voting scandal will no doubt also have encouraged the more hawkish members of Leo Varadkar’s party.

Those in FG who are calling for an election appear convinced that the Government’s successful handling of the Brexit negotiations will give them a decisive advantage whenever the Taoiseach decides to go to the people.

To be clear, Mr Varadkar, Simon Coveney and Helen McEntee’s handling of Brexit has been extremely skilful and deserves significant praise.

However, when it comes to an election, Brexit will likely be far down most voters’ list of priorities.

Last week a “senior Fine Gael figure” gave his opinion on going to the polls. “We will never get as good a chance, the kudos will not last,” the unnamed party figure is quoted as saying.

As mentioned, Mr Varadkar and his team do deserve ‘ kudos’ for their handling of Brexit but it is hard to escape the feeling that this senior FG figure – and others like them – vastly overestimate the voting public’s interest in the Brexit deal.

Most voters are simply sick of the whole thing and making it a core plank of an election campaign could be a costly mistake for Fine Gael.

To quote Bill Clinton’s election winning campaign strategist, “It’s the economy, stupid.” Put simply, when it comes to voting people are far more concerned about the money in their pocket than a slightly nebulous notion like Brexit.

Issues like the ongoing homelessness crisis, rising crime and the state of the health care system are also far more important to the average voter and on these issues Fine Gael’s record is less than stellar.

On another note, Fine Gael’s view of Fianna Fáil’s recent travails also seem overly optimistic. The scandal over Dáil voting practices is a plague on all houses and most voters appear firmly of the opinion that the practice is, and always has been, rampant among all TDs.

By contrast, if you want to see real anger over politicians’ behaviour, simply mention the name of Maria Bailey to a typical voter.

In the UK, the December General Election will very likely come down to one issue. Will voters back Boris’ Brexit or not?

In Ireland, our next election will be a far more complex affair and looming battles in various constituencies make the result far harder to call. An upset could very well be on the cards.

Rather than stampeding to the polls on the back of a Brexit deal those seeking an election would be wise to keep their powder dry.