Belarus crisis is a test of the world’s ability and will to stand up to Russia

JUST two months ago much was made of Ireland securing a place on the UN Security Council and the prestige and influence the seat lends our small nation. Ireland won’t actually take its seat on the council until the beginning of 2021 and, long before then, events in Belarus are likely to once again highlight how toothless the council actually is.

This week Alexander Lukashenko is facing the most serious threat to his 26 year leadership of the former Soviet state.

Regularly accused of human rights abuses Lukashenko, whom the USA labelled the last dictator in Europe, has for decades presided over a regime that brutalises its nine million citizens.

Political arrests are common and any dissent is ruthlessly suppressed; the press is strictly controlled and the notion of a ‘free and fair’ election had become laughable.

Somewhat ironically it is an election result that now threatens Lukashenko’s rule. In last week’s election, Lukashenko claimed to have won a massive 80 per cent of the vote – a typically dictatorial tally – in the face of fierce opposition from political novice Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya whose opposition movement had garnered enormous popular support in the run up to the ballot.

Lukashenko’s ‘victory’ has led to mass protests and with a general strike in the offing his days in power appear numbered. He is doing all he can to maintain his grip on power – including detaining and terrorising his opponent Ms Tsikhanouskaya into fleeing the country – but it looks increasingly like Europe’s last dictator is about to land on the political scrapheap.

What happens after that is hard to predict but one thing is almost certain, it is Vladimir Putin who will decide the outcome.

Once a close ally of Russia, Lukashenko and Putin’s relationship has become strained in recent years. So tense are relations that just this summer Lukashenko’s police arrested 33 Russian military contractors in Minsk. Such actions are rare in Russian satellite states and it has not gone down well in Moscow. As a result, Lukshenko’s pleas for Russian military aid are falling on deaf ears.

However, that doesn’t mean Russia and Putin don’t have a major interest in what happens and who will succeed Lukashenko if he is finally deposed.

While a repeat of Russia’s annexation of Crimea – which followed the 2014 revolution that overthrew the Ukrainian Government – isn’t expected, Putin will want to ensure Belarus remains in Russia’s sphere of influence and doesn’t succumb to any overtures from the EU.

The fact that Belarus borders three NATO members will also be on Putin’s mind, in fact Lukashenko has already attempted to play up the NATO factor claiming the alliance’ troops have been massing on the Belarusian western border.

Whatever happens in Belarus over the coming days and weeks Vladimir Putin will be the key. As was the case with Ukraine – thanks to Russia’s Security Council veto and its stranglehold on Europe’s energy supplies – there is probably nothing anyone can, or will, do about it.