Lack of transfers to harm Sinn Féin

A NEW opinion poll shows Sinn Féin is in second place for a seat in two of the three European constituencies, but its failure to pick up transfers may ultimately cost it.

The RED C survey conducted this week for the Sunday Business Post shows that while the party’s candidates will do well in first preferences, it could struggle to attract transfers needed to secure a seat.

In the three-seat Dublin constituency, Fine Gael’s Brian Hayes tops the poll on 18%, followed by Sinn Féin’s Lynn Boylan on 15%, Labour’s Emer Costello and Fianna Fáil’s Mary Fitzpatrick on 13%, the Green Party’s Eamon Ryan on 12% and Independent Nessa Childers on 10%.

In the four-seat Midlands North West constituency, Fine Gael’s Mairead McGuinness and Independent Marian Harkin top the poll on 16% each, followed by Sinn Féin’s Matt Carthy and Independent Luke ‘Ming’ Flanagan on 14% each, and Fine Gael’s Jim Higgins on 10%.

McGuinness, Harkin and Flanagan look set to pull in enough second preferences to win seats, leaving a battle for fourth between Higgins, Pat the Cope Gallagher of Fianna Fáil and Sinn Féin’s Carthy.

In the four-seat Ireland South constituency Fianna Fáil’s Brian Crowley looks a certainty to retain his seat with 28%.

He is followed by Fine Gael’s Seán Kelly on 18% and Liadh Ní Riada of Sinn Féin on 14%, with Labour’s Phil Prendergast and Fine Gael’s Deirdre Clune tied on 9%, and Fine Gael’s Simon Harris on 8%.

A survey of second preferences shows that Crowley, Kelly, Clune and Prendergast will pick up transfers. Ni Riada’s difficulty picking up second preferences could see her lose her chance of a seat.