Latest debacle puts Enda in danger of acquiring the reputation of ‘loser’

The final part of this series analysing the fortunes of the parties before the elections focuses on Fine Gael and Labour – and the strains between them

HE led Fine Gael to its best ever General Election result three years ago but Enda Kenny’s ability to win key votes is being questioned by members of his own party.

The grumblings have intensified since the Taoiseach’s latest embarrassment this week, when TDs and senators rejected his preferred candidate for the chairmanship of the parliamentary party.

Despite securing a record 76 Dáil seats and building a seemingly impregnable coalition with Labour, TDs and senators say their leader’s electoral record has been anything but stellar since.

In Mr Kenny’s first test after the General Election, the party rejected his choice of Pat Cox as the party’s presidential candidate, with the rank and file opting for veteran MEP Gay Mitchell instead. Mr Mitchell was humiliated in the October election, securing only 6% in the poll.

Fine Gael also came a distant fourth in the Dublin West byelection held on the same day to replace the deceased Brian Lenihan.

Mr Kenny’s Government has also struggled to push through a number of referendums. Amendments on the European Fiscal Treaty, judges’ pay and children’s rights were approved but what appeared to be populist moves to grant sweeping investigative powers to Dáil committees and abolish the Seanad were soundly rejected by the public.

Even his record at getting legislation through the Dáil has suffered setbacks. While Mr Kenny succeeded in having the emotive X-case bill passed last summer, he lost several TDs and managed to create a rallying point for dissidents like Lucinda Creighton.

One TD said: ‘You often hear from our lads that Enda Kenny is a Fine Gael version of Bertie Ahern, a massive asset, that can get us a boost of votes.

‘He is no Bertie. Bertie won three General Elections in a row, the final one in the midst of financial allegations. Enda is unproven as a major election asset,’ he said.

‘He is not as popular as the 2011 General Election suggested. Referendums prove it as do opinion polls. A lot of Enda’s enemies are watching him.

‘Let’s face it, Gay Mitchell was a bad candidate. But in previous elections, your core vote would come out to support you no matter what. That didn’t happen,’ said a TD.

The Taoiseach’s difficulty in convincing others was starkly emphasised on Wednesday when TDs and senators snubbed his candidate for the chairmanship of parliamentary party, Paudie Coffey. Instead, an amalgam of antiKennyites, middle-ground TDs and younger TDs known as the five-a-side club secured the election of Dan Neville.

It followed other recent setbacks, not least the resignations of Frank Flannery and loyal minister Alan Shatter.

While no serious political observers are saying that Mr Kenny’s position as leader is under immediate threat, a bad election result could nonethe-

‘If the losses are bad,

Enda’s in trouble’

less raise questions.

Fine Gael will expect to have two of their three candidates – Seán Kelly, Deirdre Clune and Simon Harris – elected in the Ireland South constituency.

It looks like the party will get only one seat in Midlands North West, with sitting MEP Jim Higgins losing out.

That means that whether or not the election is deemed a success for Mr Kenny will depend largely on his former archenemy Brian Hayes taking a seat in Dublin.

But the local elections are another matter. Analysis of recent poll figures shows Fine Gael look like shipping losses of up to 10% on their 2009 showing.

There are also two byelections this Friday, in Dublin West and LongfordWestmeath. The LongfordWestmeath by-election is being held to fill the seat of the late Nicky McFadden and her sister Gabrielle has a very good chance of retaining the seat for Fine Gael.

However, the by-election in Dublin West is already turning into another potential disaster with Senator Eamonn Coghlan having a bizarre outing on Vincent Browne Tonight on TV3 on Thursday.

Mr Coghlan was ridiculed on social media after Browne eviscerated him.

The post-election Cabinet reshuffle will be the first big test for Mr Kenny. He is currently planning a limited, conservative series of moves, sparked by the need to fill one position when a Cabinet minister is sent to Europe as Commissioner.

‘Phil Hogan is the favourite, and a lot of us don’t buy this theory that Phil won’t go if Enda feels very insecure, post the election. Imagine if Phil didn’t go? How much trouble would a dissatisfied Hogan cause if this happens?

‘If the losses are bad there will have to be a sizeable reshuffle, and everybody will have to be happy with that or Enda will be in trouble.’