Reilly out, Varadkar in – but no major FG reshuffle ahead
FINE GAEL TDs say the demotion of Dr James Reilly from the Department of Health and his replacement by Dr Leo Varadkar is the most likely move of an impending Cabinet reshuffle.
There are two conflicting views in the Fine Gael parliamentary party about what the Taoiseach will do in the forthcoming reshuffle, which it is believed will be more extensive after the party lost 12% of its national vote in last week elections.
Many, particularly younger TDs, believe Enda Kenny must initiate a sweeping, comprehensive clear-out of Cabinet ministers to freshen up the Government before the next General Election.
However, those closest to Mr Kenny say he will carry out a limited reshuffle of Fine Gael ministers. He will seek to stress the successes of his Government in tackling the economic problems in a competent way. A sweeping reshuffle would be seen as an admission of failure and would cause instability.
Though Fine Gael’s electoral disaster appears to have flown under the media radar in some respects, there is a belief in the party that the huge loss of popularity has significantly weakened Mr Kenny’s position. It has also brought forward the date when either Mr Varadkar or Simon Coveney will inherit the leadership.
Many TDs commented that Mr Kenny looked exhausted during the election campaign and there appears to be growing instability in the party as ministers jockey for position. There is no immediate threat to Mr Kenny’s leadership but one cohort of colleagues believes he must carry out sweeping changes to secure his position.
Many ministers and TDs believe that Mr Kenny cannot resist their exhortations to remove the disaster-prone Mr Reilly from Health. But there is also a growing belief among some TDs that Phil Hogan will not, after all, be destined for the European Commissioner’s job to make way for a Labour candidate.
However, a senior Fine Gael source stressed that Mr Hogan is still the favourite for Europe. ‘Phil is still going, he has been all but promised the job, and his power as an enforcer is waning anyway. I don’t think Enda is that concerned that he would stay,’ said one Fine Gael TD.
‘But what if you were to say to Phil, you are staying – and he has to stay in a position in a department that is weak? And indeed he is no dead cert to be re-elected in Carlow-Kilkenny?
‘He would be deeply, deeply unhappy. And an unhappy Hogan would not be good, he could undermine Enda.’
Still there does appear to be agreement that Mr Kenny will move Mr Hogan and Mr Reilly on.
‘We have to get him and Reilly out of the firing line, they are deeply unpopular, but the dilemma is what to do with them? Would Reilly take a lesser position, like Arts or something? He probably would,’ said the Fine Gael TD.
There was a stormy Fine Gael parliamentary party meeting in Government Buildings on Wednesday. Many were struck by how tired Mr Kenny and Deputy leader Mr Reilly looked.
‘Both men sat at the top table, both looked worn out and dispirited, it is those two who lost most from this result. They are the top men and the flak from the measures they are taking is telling,’ said one party source.
There is, however, another school of thought in the party that says Mr Kenny will stick to his intended policy of a conservative reshuffle.
‘We have to get out the message that we have been economically responsible and there has been competent management, we have, after all, rescued the country from economic oblivion,’ said the TD
‘A sweeping reshuffle will be an admission of failure and Enda knows that.’