A COALITION OF FG AND FF ‘LIKE GAY MARRIAGE’
It would seem wrong at f irst but would work out in the end – Leo Varadkar ignites debate on battle for the next election
LEO VARADKAR has raised the prospect of Fine Gael entering coalition with Fianna Fáil – comparing such an arrangement to ‘same-sex marriage’, the Irish Mail on Sunday can reveal.
It’s the first time such a senior minister has publicly entertained the idea of the two ‘civil war’ parties entering government together.
The Health Minister told Young Fine Gael members that Government with Fianna Fáil was a strong possibility – and hinted that despite decades of rivalry, it would be a logical fit.
In a behind-closed-doors question and answer session in University College Dublin on Tuesday, Mr Varadkar said: ‘Coalition with Fianna Fáil would be a little like a same-sex marriage: it would seem wrong at first but would probably work out fine
in the end.’ But Mr Varadkar, who is strongly tipped to be Enda Kenny’s ultimate successor, first told his questioner: ‘Labour is a marriage made in heaven. I don’t want to change Government partners. I want us to get re-elected as a partnership with Labour.’
A spokesman confirmed Mr Varadkar’s controversial comments but attempted to dismiss them as ‘a jokey thing’.
‘That was a private branch meeting he was attending in the guise of a Fine Gael member attending and addressing a Fine Gael meeting.
‘He’d spoken and it was towards the end of the meeting and there were various questions coming up so he was asked specifically about whether he could foresee Fine Gael going into coalition with Fianna Fáil or Sinn Féin after the election,’ the spokesman said.
‘It was kind of a jokey thing like that. He also ruled out coalition with Sinn Féin as well, he couldn’t foresee that in any circumstances,’ he added.
However a number of those attend-
‘If Fianna Fáil is the larger party, I’m on board’
ing said that Mr Varadkar gave no indication that he was joking, though it was an informal discussion.
However, with Labour languishing in single figures in the polls, a re-election of the coalition looks highly unlikely. A poll this month put Fine Gael at 22% and Labour at 7% – not enough to form a government between them. Some seat projections have Labour returning with just two seats.
Fianna Fáil polled 25% of first preference votes in May’s local elections, while Fine Gael polled 24%.
That would put a centre-right coalition comfortably ahead of Sinn Féin, which polled 15.3% in those elections, and Labour, which gathered a paltry 7.2%.
Senior figures in both Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil are accepting the realpolitik of those results. Despite consistently strong showings in opinion polls, Sinn Féin performs less well in elections, while Fianna Fáil always performs better than the polls suggest.
Fianna Fáil TD John McGuinness
Labour is a marriage made in heaven. I don’t want to change Government partners. But coalition with Fianna Fáil would be a little like a same-sex marriage; it would ould seem wrong at first but would probably work out t fine in the end
said last night: ‘Leo is right and we have to start preparing for it.’
‘The point is, they should be telling people this far out, “Whatever way the numbers fall, that’s what will form the Government.” It isn’t a question of people saying I won’t do this and I won’t do that.
‘If the results of the next General Election throw up a requirement for Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael to come together, in the interests of the country, then they won’t be able to ignore that. What Leo Varadkar has said is right.
‘And that’s a challenge for Fianna Fáil to get its act together and ensure it has appropriate policies that will resonate with the Irish people, in the hope that we might be in a position to participate in a coalition with somebody.’
The next General Election is now a maximum of 18 months away.
Frontbencher Niall Collins said he would favour the so-called ‘grand coalition’ with Fine Gael provided Fianna Fáíl was the senior partner but would vote to go into opposition if his party was the smaller party.
‘I will be voting against going into coalition unless we’re the largest party in the Dáil. However if Fianna Fáil were the larger party, then I’m on board for coalition with Fine Gael,’ he said.
During the week, former Fine Gael minister Ivan Yates wrote that he believed a ‘Fianna Gael’ coalition was now inevitable. ‘Both parties concur on all big-ticket fundamentals: fostering an open-market, enterprise, export economy; the fiscal responsibility of balanced budgets; a united Ireland conditional on cross-community consent; muddled, compromised caution on radical liberal reforms such as abortion or euthanasia; favouring retained European integration; military neutrality; taxation systems providing incentives for inward
investment and rewarding hard work; rural and balanced regional development; unswerving allegiance to gardaí and courts; and respect for religious freedoms in education.
‘They also share a culture of political opportunism, where opposition or government benches determine pragmatic cynical acrobatics on day-to-day issues. When it comes to cronyism, they are no different. The only difference is DNA origins relating to Michael Collins and Éamon de Valera.’
The grassroots of each party would be a problem, observers suggest. Yet Fianna Fáil has not formed a one-party government since Charlie Haughey went into coalition with the Progressive Democrats in 1989. And Fine Gael has never been in power on its own.
The voice of the Fianna Fáil grassroots, Éamon Ó Cuív, is not in favour of coalition with Fine Gael.
‘I believe there are too many differences and they have nothing to do with the civil war,’ said Mr Ó Cuív, grandson of the party’s founder, Éamon de Valera.
‘The differences are social, economic, fiscal, cultural on Europe. Is that enough for you? In the Dáil, every party and Independent is in agreement on certain things – that we should have a proper health service and they support democracy and so on.
‘But on so many other issues we are in conflict with Fine Gael and I just don’t think we have enough common ground,’ he added
The demise of long-established parties and the rise of extremists on both sides of the spectrum – such as UKIP in Britain and Syriza in Greece – is a Europe-wide phenomenon since the 2008 economic crash.
A senior Fianna Fáil strategist said during the week that the once-unthinkable is being considered because of the fall in support for the established parties.
‘The way the figures are settling in the last year or more, there are going to be four distinct blocs in the Dáil, all around 20% to 25%. The Independents are just that, independent, and a Government
‘They can’t go near Sinn Féin, Labour’s in trouble’
involving 40-odd independents isn’t a runner,’ he said.
‘And Fine Gael can’t go near Sinn Féin so it [coalition with Fianna Fáil} is looking increasingly likely. Unless something spectacular happens with the economy, Labour are in major trouble.’
As far back as 2010 the MoS spoke to senior members of both parties about coalition, in the wake of Brian Lenihan being invited to speak at the annual Fine Gael Michael Collins commemoration in Béal na Blath.
Most enthusiasm for a coalition came from the anti-Kenny faction in Fine Gael, with which Mr Varadkar was at the time identified.