Breaking FREE
They may be shrouded in gloom but Leinster have a glorious opportunity to stun Europe next weekend
TO TRY and get a handle on Leinster’s troubled season, you could do worse than start with the club’s annual player of the year award. Usually, there’s a list of outstanding candidates jostling for position but not this time. Could it be Jimmy Gopperth, Kane Douglas, Ben Te’o or Zane Kirchner? Hardly. None of Leinster’s foreign contingent have come remotely close to the levels of previous imported winners like Felipe Contepomi, Rocky Elsom and Isa Nacewa. Ireland’s Six Nations stars? The majority now perform far better in green than blue.
Seán Cronin, Luke Fitzgerald and young Jack Conan would have decent claims on the award but the struggle in compiling an extensive shortlist speaks to a collective malaise diminishing individual quality. And, malaise is the best way to describe it for, despite Leinster still being in contention to retain their PRO12 title and standing alone as the last Celtic nation in the revamped, Anglo-Gallo dominated European Cup, they are simply not where they should be.
The reaction to their quarter-final victory over Bath told its own tale – never in the 20-year history of this competition has the response to an Irish province making the semi-finals been so muted and there was widespread agreement that the visitors to Lansdowne Road had played the better rugby, only to be caught short by their naivete and indiscipline.
It was a Leinster victory but a performance which heaped more pressure on head coach Matt O’Connor, a man who has become accustomed to having a creditable run of results picked apart on the basis of the end not justifying the means.
As the criticism has rained down, the excuses have been raised in response but they do not stand up to close perusal. International call-ups have undeniably been a factor, as Leinster are by far the greatest suppliers to Joe Schmidt’s ongoing Ireland success story, while O’Connor has also had to cope with a serious exodus of ability and leadership since he took over in 2013.
The ability, experience and inspirational qualities of Brian O’Driscoll, Nacewa, Johnny Sexton and Leo Cullen are not easily, or quickly, replaced but those departures cannot wholly explain the insipid and uncertain nature of much of Leinster’s play this season, given this is still a very potent squad retaining core leaders in the form of Jamie Heaslip, O’Brien, Eoin Reddan and Rob Kearney.
Nor can international obligations be blithely used to explain away so many sub-par displays, as Schmidt faced the same challenges during his time at Leinster but was still able to extract greater cohesion and consistency from his understudy contingent.
It has also been claimed the criticism can be attributed to a ‘spoilt’ fan base and overly harsh media but, while results have largely held up, there is hard evidence of a sharp drop in attacking fluency and defensive surety (56 missed tackles in their last two outings) from the Schmidt era which cannot be ignored.
IT CREATES a worrying backdrop for O’Connor’s next Euopean assignment. ‘How the hell are Leinster still in this competition?’ was the most frequently posed question after the win over Bath and the general perception is of O’Connor bringing his men to Marseilles next weekend for a public flaying at the hands of treble-chasing Toulon and their ‘fantasy football’ array of import talent.
However, for all the glass half-empty moping taking place in the build-up, the fact remains that Leinster still in the competition, with a relatively clean injury slate, and this is a wonderful opportunity to redeem their season by recording what would unquestionably be one of the great European upsets.
But only if – and it is a giant ‘if’, given O’Connor’s stubborn commitment to his chosen policies – their head coach is willing to take bold initiatives in selection and tactics in order to exploit potential weaknesses in Toulon’s physical and mental make-up.
After today’s match in Newport, he has a week to finally get it right.
MIDDLE GROUND
O’Connor clearly believes Ian Madigan cannot control a game as well as Jimmy Gopperth at 10 and he is not for budging. However, his preferred midfield of Gopperth at 10, with Madigan and Te’o outside him has not clicked. Gordon D’Arcy fills Madigan’s 12 jersey for today’s clash away to the Dragons and his nous, especially in defence, would be invaluable in Marseilles. The romantic combination would be Madigan-D’Arcy-Fitzgerald which would test Toulon on every level but, while it is difficult to see O’Connor taking that bold route, regardless of what unfolds in Newport today, there is a dire need for a midfield rethink.
LEADERS QUESTION
The return of Leo Cullen and Shane Jennings from Leicester was a turning point in Leinster rugby history. Cullen is gone, relocated to the sideline as forwards coach, but Jennings is still there, seeing out the last few weeks of a distinguished career, and captains against Dragons today. The flanker has considerable presence (as he proved when coming off the bench to help to turn around a 16-point deficit in the 2011 final against Northampton) and getting him in the squad for Marseilles would be an act of positive reinforcement.
All the talk is about Toulon’s A-listers but their opponents carry serious quality
THE FELIX FACTOR
If this contest were being played out in the daunting environs of Toulon’s Felix Mayol home, discussions on how Leinster could win would be moot. However, the Stade Velodrome dilutes the intimidation factor, as Munster proved in last year’s semi when, with better tactics, they would have caught the champions napping.
AGE AWARENESS
Toulon are an old outfit. Hayman, Botha, Williams, Gorgodze and Masoe may be some of the most revered forwards in the game but on a warm day with a high tempo and hard ground, they will be blowing. If Leinster can stay with Toulon through their inevitable early onslaught, their warhorses will wobble.
FRAGILE FREDDIE
Leinster should be praying Toulon stick with Freddie Michalak at 10. The football ability of France’s former golden boy cannot be challenged but he is also ripe for implosion under pressure.
EXPECTATION GAME
Toulon will have studied the video evidence and seen little to trouble them, creating a real danger of complacency. Then there is the pressure of delivering a thumping for their fans, while Leinster’s will travel in hope and no expectation beyond a nice day out in the south east of France. Liberating.
FREEDOM OF EXPRESSION
Leinster’s best showing this season came in the second half against Glasgow at the RDS a couple of weeks ago when, trailing 27-7 at the break, the players cut loose and played like they remembered why they had fallen in love with the game as youngsters. It set a template for next weekend – have a cut.
QUALITY ASSURANCE
With all the talk of Toulon’s A-listers, it is easy to forget their opponents carry serious quality and winning experience in their ranks also. Seven of Leinster’s pack and four of their backs are coming off an invigorating Six Nations success and, after a quarter-final where he was not at full capacity, Seán O’Brien is due a massive performance to rival his at Murrayfield last month.
Reduce it all down and, while there are enough ifs to keep Rudyard Kipling content, Leinster still have the capacity to banish the negativity and produce a performance to redeem their season and finally bring O’Connor out of the long shadow cast by Schmidt. This is a week that will define careers and, for all the gloom enveloping them, if Leinster and their coach get the creative processes sorted, on the seventh day there may be light.