Game’s on at FF to take at least one seat in every constituency

In the first of a series of analyses ahead of the fast-approaching election, The Irish Mail on Sunday’s John Lee runs the rule over the strengths and weaknesses of the parties, starting with the party who held their pre-election árdfheis this weekend: FIANNA FáIL

PARTY:

Fianna Fáil were given the death penalty in 2011, with the sentence commuted only slightly to a woeful 19 seats. In 2016, rather than receive a full pardon the party is likely to enter a halfway house. The party’s leadership is targeting at least a seat in every one of the country’s 40 constituencies. Expect them to achieve it.

LEADER:

Micheál Martin is a strange phenomenon. He won the leadership of the party, prior to the 2011 General Election, from a parliamentary party made up of over a hundred TDs and Senators. Then the party was wiped out, so he doesn’t have a mandate from those he currently rules. But he is the most substantial, experienced politician Fianna Fáil has. If he becomes Tánaiste or secures 40 seats he may have a mandate. If neither happens, the ‘Young Turks’ will move.

DÁIL STRENGTH:

Fianna Fáil lost over 50 seats in the last election, a catastrophe beyond the imagination of most political observers. But in the lifetime of the Dáil they have gained two extra seats, with Bobby Aylward elected in the Carlow Kilkenny by-election and Colm Keavney having switched sides from Labour.

LATEST POLLS:

They’ve hovered near 20% for the last few years – but in recent months have dropped below that mark. But they were at similar figures prior to the local elections and polled 25%. It’s not a popular view, but expect the grand old party to do better than polls show.

STRATEGY:

‘We haven’t gone away you know.’ Fianna Fáil has a core voter. For anyone who can’t figure out why Micheál Martin dismisses both Sinn Féin and Fine Gael as partners, a key strategist says: ‘It’s all about the Taliban. We have core, black Fianna Fáil voters, we have driven away enough voters already and if we said we were going to go into coalition with either of those parties we’d be finished.’ But after the election all bets are off.

OBSTACLES:

The economy and health – Fianna Fáil were the administrators of one of the most spectacular sovereign bankruptcies in world history, after all. And every time Micheál Martin mentions health in the Dáil, Enda Kenny reminds him that he was Minister at that department for four years. He also mentions disasters like PPARS (a payroll IT system that cost €250m).

OPPORTUNITIES:

Fine Gael, once the party of law and order, have had a disastrous five years in this area, lurching from crisis to crisis. Fianna Fáil can continue to take votes back if they capitalise on fears in rural Ireland – security and loss of confidence in the State’s institutions of justice. Childcare, the elderly and the environment (including Irish Water) are areas that Fianna Fáil has been strong on in opposition – and which voters care about.

BIG HITTERS:

The gloves must come off for leader Micheál Martin against the evasive Enda Kenny. Martin has two key lieutenants in Niall Collins and Michael McGrath, his most successful markers of their opposite numbers. Party research shows the two are popular with women. Fianna Fáil also have strong female candidates – Catherine Ardagh (pictured), Jennifer Cuffe and Lisa Chambers.

KEY BATTLES:

Fianna Fáil will try to get two returned in some areas – in Carlow-Kilkenny, where two of John McGuinness, Bobby Aylward or Jennifer Murnane O’Connor is possible. In Galway West Éamon Ó Cuív leads a strong ticket with Cllr Mary Hoade and John Connolly. At least three seats are vital in Dublin.

SKELETONS IN THE CLOSET:

It will take a generation for memories of the bailout to fade. And it is an effective counterargument to almost every issue.

ACE IN THE HOLE:

Willie O’Dea, pictured; when he gets revved up the quotes are priceless. But crucially, his outbursts are usually backed by a razor sharp intelligence.

DANCE PARTNERS:

Sinn Féin or Fine Gael. No matter what they say before the election. But the preference currently appears to be for going into oppositio.

DID YOU KNOW?

Fianna Fáil was founded in the La Scala Theatre in Dublin’s Prince’s St in 1926. The La Scala was operated as a cinema until 1972. It was later demolished; Penneys is now on the site where the soldiers of destiny were born. LIKELIHOOD OF BEING IN GOVERNMENT: