BOMBSHELL FOR KENNY
Fine Gael’s secret poll shows coalition face losing 52 seats Ex-FG election guru reveals WHY strategy is failing Do not rule out going into power with FF, Enda told
FINE Gael’s internal polls show it losing 23 seats as its former director of elections Frank Flannery admits a coalition with Fianna Fáil may now need serious consideration.
The secret figures, published today by the Irish Mail on Sunday, show Fine Gael taking just 53 seats – 16 short of their pre-campaign target, prompting senior strategists
to admit privately the party’s revised target has been reduced to 60 instead of 69.
But Ministers Simon Coveney and Richard Bruton recommitted to the 69-seat target when asked on Friday.
Crucially the secret polls suggest the Labour collapse will see them return with just eight seats – meaning the outgoing coalition, which was within two seats of a majority according to similar research three weeks ago, would now need the support of 19 other TDs.
The coalition is facing a loss of 52 seats in all, which is a meltdown comparable to Fianna Fáil’s loss of 52 seats in 2011.
There was further consternation at Fine Gael headquarters when the research showed a resurgent Fianna Fáil. In many rural constituencies Micheál Martin’s party has returned to its pre-2011 levels.
The headline figures show Fine Gael at 53; Fianna Fáil, 39; Sinn Féin, 30; Labour, 8; Independents, 20; Anti-Austerity Alliance, 4; Social Democrats, 3; Renua, 1.
It shows Sinn Féin more than doubling its seat total. In Cork in particular there are significant gains with an unexpected two seats in Cork North Central. The party will also push out Fine Gael’s Jerry Buttimer in Cork South Central.
The Fine Gael poll, which is compiled from a combination of national polls, the party’s own polling, bookies odds and ‘local intelligence’ is used as a guide for campaign focus. It changes almost daily.
But it shows that the news for Labour is unrelentingly negative with Joan Burton and Alex White struggling to keep their seats.
And members of Enda Kenny’s Praetorian Guard, young TDs Patrick O’Donovan and Joe Carey, are also under threat.
The Fine Gael figures come as a Red C Poll for the Sunday Business Post showed Fine Gael return to 30% (up two) while Sinn Féin drop four to 16% from last Sunday’s poll.
It showed no change for Fianna Fáil at 18%, Labour at 8% and Independents and smaller parties at a whopping 28%.
A separate Millward Brown poll for the Sunday Independent had Fianna Fáil climb to 23%, four points off Fine Gael on 27% while Labour continue to founder on 6% and Sinn Féin are down two points to 19%.
The numbers are strongly pointing to a Fine Gael-Fianna Fáil coalition being the only way to ensure a viable government after Friday.
In an exclusive interview, the party’s former chief strategist Frank Flannery urges Fine Gael to enter coalition with Fianna Fail if no other combination is possible.
‘I think our political class must put political stability as item number one,’ he says.
‘Now, if that throws the main responsibility back on the two parties, which in their different ways founded the State well then let them shoulder the responsibility again and find a new way forward. That’s what I would say.’
His Flannery Report is credited with being the 2002 blueprint that saw Fine Gael become a force in Irish politics again. He said there are many obstacles the two parties would have to overcome.
‘Overcome failings, overcome culture, overcome history. I think it would be the ultimate arriving at maturity of our political caste. They have been living too long on the traditions they inherited from their forebears. While in many ways it has served Ireland very well,’ he said.
‘I think there was an over-reliance on the Taoiseach in the first half of the election. I think the rest of the team have to go out and win the game themselves, the Government needs to be sparking on all cylinders. And he’ll play his role, but his role is he’s not the team but he’s the captain of the team.’
The theme was evident last night among Fine Gael cabinet sources who said there will be a ‘passionate’ fightback after one of the most lacklustre campaigns in general election history.
They insisted they will turn the campaign around with a series of attacks against Fianna Fáil, Sinn Féin and the Independents. And they still believe they can claw back marginal seats.
A Cabinet source said ministers such as Simon Coveney, Leo Varadkar, Paschal Donohoe and Michael Noonan will go on the ‘attack’ this week.
‘We’ve allowed the debate to revolve around what we didn’t do, the last week has to be about we did do. What we have achieved.
‘We are going to attack Fianna Fáil and Sinn Féin on their records and what they are proposing.
‘We’ve let Micheál Martin get away with murder, are we really going to let the last man standing from that Fianna Fail Cabinet back into power. Expect to see lots of attacks and criticism of Micheál,’ the source said.
‘Sinn Féin are not necessarily going to threaten us, but it looks like Fianna Fáil will. In this game people don’t make up their minds until the final few days. We just have to stay the course,’ he added.
And in Castlebar Enda Kenny claimed he will show so much passion in the remaining days of the campaign that it will make the ‘hairs stand up’ on voters’ necks.
A Fine Gael strategist at party headquarters said: ‘I believe we have had a good couple of days. The ministers have come out and started to perform. We have to stick with the message.
‘We have had some complacency from the outset of the campaign… but we have had some passion and fight from the Taoiseach and ministers in recent days.
‘Leo may not be a fighter but he is a political celebrity. When he speaks people listen, they like his style, he has name recognition. He succeeded in getting Micheál Martin very angry the other day with his statements on health.
Another strategist said: ‘We will stick with the message, that is what the Tories did and they came back at the end.
With Fine Gael at 30% in the Red C poll, a Cabinet source said last night: ‘We believe 60 seats is now the realistic target. With Fianna Fáil at 20ish, we can get a seat bonus. A party strategist said: ‘The move from mid-fifties to 60 seats will come in the final surge.’
The final leaders’ four-way debate is on Tuesday’s Prime Time and will be the last chance to sway floating
Political stability must come first Coalition with FF would be ultimate in maturity
voters. Asked yesterday on the campaign trail if he would display passion, Enda Kenny said: ‘You bet. A lot of it to give. There’s a lot at play here, it’s about our country, about our people. About all our futures.’