From near-death to rebirth in five years, it’s a miracle for FF
FIANNA Fáil is preparing for government, arguing the toss about supporting a Fine Gael-led minority government – or even joining a full-blown coalition with their historical rivals. Opponents who use the FF brand for target practice are reeling in shock – and their creeping popularity has even blindsided veteran Soldiers of Destiny.
The boys are back in town: Éamon Ó Cuív leading the traditionalists and John McGuinness pressing the case for pragmatists ready for action in government.
As polling day approaches, Fianna Fáil has been quietly reclaiming the votes it loaned to Fine Gael and the Labour Party in the 2011 election.
But despite its recent upsurge in popularity, the mood within the parliamentary party is still more cautious than triumphalist as members wrestle with some historic decisions.
Should a reinvigorated Fianna Fáil support a minority Fine Gaelled administration with other parties and independents?
Or should FF go into coalition as a junior partner with Fine Gael and risk the inevitable near-death experience at the end of term?
WILL the public punish it for putting the party interest before the country and remain in opposition, provoking a political crisis? A careless or hasty choice could irrevocably sunder the party and split the leadership.
Veterans like Mary O’Rourke cannot imagine public life in Ireland without Fianna Fáil playing a leading role.
Others fear that sharing government with Fine Gael would be treacherous to the founders of Fianna Fáil – and cede historical relevance to Sinn Féin. FF’s return to the centre of Irish public life is a remarkable turnaround in the party’s fortunes.
Since the economic crash, Fianna Fáil has been a synonym for incompetence and shame, its representatives reviled and mocked since the 2011 election.
Yet as former Progressive Democrat minister Liz O’Donnell noted, there is little evidence that Fine Gael or Labour would have handled the crisis any differently.
There were fundamental shifts in the perceptions of political parties that went unnoticed though the 31st Dáil, a transformation where Fine Gael took on Fianna Fáil values. Fine Gael assumed Fianna Fáil’s historical reputation for competence after 2011 – but then sacrificed its standing for integrity through its own scandals. And after the most recent spell in government, voters are querying Fine Gael’s claims of competence.
There is no noticeable ideological difference between the two biggest parties to most outsiders and to young Irish people, Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael are interchangeable. Micheál Martin was consistently the most able and intelligent debater though the election campaign while the Government party leaders fared badly, repeating prepared slogans.
The Government parties are in turmoil, with Enda Kenny and Joan Burton notably failing to inspire in the debates – and that absence of leadership is obvious in their parties’ campaigns. Their negative campaign ran out of ammunition last week and we will get more of the same – but more strident and bad-tempered in the final five days.
Maybe Fine Gael’s future leadership contenders, such as Leo Varadkar, Simon Coveney and Brian Hayes, will take the opportunity to reflect on what went wrong:
How come the most incompetent and unpopular political party in the history of Irish opinion polls is challenging the Government that saved the nation? Unable to comprehend the resurgence of Fianna Fáil, biblical scholars in Fine Gael may use the ‘Give us Barabbas’ example of the mob choosing a villain before a hero. We are just five days away from an election that promised historical change but may deliver old, familiar enemies conjoined in government.