We have to stake our claim as part of a new Europe

IN THIS time of uncertainty, it is impossible to predict with any degree of confidence the vast implications of Brexit.

Even the timeframe of the process involved in severing ties with the EU is unclear.

The rules for exit contained in Article 50 of the Treaty of Lisbon are brief and untested.

Once Article 50 is triggered, the clock starts ticking on a two-year period after which the treaties governing EU membership no longer apply to Britain.

At that point, Britain will unpick the threads of its 43-year history with Europe – a process that will be laborious, complex, painstaking and, despite the stated wishes of EU leaders, potentially highly protracted.

It may take a decade to put Britain’s relationship with Europe on a new footing, a decade of uncertainty, of flux, of doubt and of all the other ingredients anathema to market confidence, when the impact will be felt on a global scale.

Only time will tell how new trading relationships with 27 EU member states will be completed, the tariffs and barriers that might apply, the restrictions of free movement as well as movement rights of EU citizens and UK nationals. There is truly a mountain to climb.

Already there are signs of regret among sections of the Out campaign about the profound consequences of their vote.

There was undoubtedly a protest vote against the EU establishment’s perceived contempt for democracy and reason. In addition, the Remain side ran a very lacklustre and complacent campaign, swiftly changing gear once their lead dissipated, instituting its dystopian Project Fear whose distinguishing features were to hector, terrify and berate any undecided voters.

We are in a post-factual era where the public’s desire to punish their elected representatives trumps reason and commonsense. Despite overwhelming evidence about Donald Trump’s character – his repulsive misogyny, petty mindedness and despicable race-baiting – his support continues to grow.

The Fine Gael and Labour coalition government rescued a broken economy, recovered our sovereignty and sent the Troika packing – yet it was trounced at the ballot box.

The same anti-establishment fervour propelled Brexit, fuelled by fears about immigration, the effect of a vast pool of labour on wages and the strain on the welfare state, the NHS and schools. But by removing itself from the EU stage, the UK has robbed the union of its most powerful watchdog, the keenest critic of unchecked hubris and institutionalised arrogance.

A new axis of power between France, Poland and Germany will now emerge to decide the fate of the member states in the newly-configured EU.

We have historical links with Britain, the country is one of our main trading partners and an important ally.

We also have a benign attitude to the EU and until the banking crisis when taxpayers were saddled with 42% of the cost of shoring up the financial system, we were a net beneficiary without any reason to doubt the institutions’ having our national interest at heart.

We are caught between two stools – a potentially largessedispensing EU behemoth, and a country with whom we share a close and special relationship one that is both economically and socially fortuitous.

In the months and years ahead, our priority must be to safeguard our small open economy by preserving our mutually beneficial relationship with the UK and ensuring that we do not become collateral damage in any action the EU might take to punish Britain for the decision of its people.

We cannot afford to be sidetracked into a noisy referendum on a united Ireland as proposed by Sinn Féin.

Britain may be at a historical crossroads and the EU plunged into an existential crisis, its very survival depending on substantial reform of its institutions.

But this moment also marks a watershed in this country’s relationship with Europe.

Should the EU seek to isolate a recalcitrant Britain by blocking trade with us or making it more expensive for our two countries to do business, by imposing a border or restricting the movement of our citizens, then we will know that we are not equal players in the European project – but its second-class citizens. We have sacrificed enough for the European project. We deserve payback.