Who will win (and who should win ) tonight
With this year’s Oscars just hours away, our film critic Matthew Bond looks at the key players to predict who will take home those dinky little statuettes… and reveals who really should win
Host Jimmy Kimmel has every right to be nervous ahead of the 89th Academy Awards tonight. It’s not only his first time but also it’s the first Oscars to be held since President Trump was elected. Will Kimmel’s razor-sharp wit be up to the job? And after last year’s #OscarsSoWhite campaign and the resulting expansion of Academy membership, how will voting go? Hot favourite La La Land is an almost entirely all-white affair, while its rival, Moonlight features a black cast and black director. Kimmel could be in for a tense night.
BEST PICTURE
The shortlist of 10 is a particularly good one this year but this surely will be a battle between the oldfashioned Hollywood charm of long-time favourite La La Land and the urban grit and surprising gentleness of Moonlight. Should win: La La Land Will win: Moonlight
BEST DIRECTOR
Potential here for a classic Oscarnight fudge, with Academy voters offering this very significant consolation prize to whoever doesn’t win Best Picture. Look out for a lingering close-up of former Hollywood outcast Mel Gibson, who, thanks to Hacksaw Ridge, is definitely back in the game. Should win: Barry Jenkins for Moonlight Will win: Damien Chazelle for La La Land
BEST ACTRESS
Not the strongest list of nominations, with Meryl Streep presumably there only because it wouldn’t be the Oscars without her. Limerick actress Ruth Negga leads Irish interest for her role in Loving.
Should win: Natalie Portman for Jackie
Will win: Emma Stone for La La Land
BEST ACTOR
Casey Affleck is the favourite here for his beautifully understated performance as a traumatised and grieving father in Manchester By The Sea. But keep an eye out for Denzel Washington, despite the theatricality of his performance in Fences and maybe for Andrew Garfield in Hacksaw Ridge.
Should win: Casey Affleck for Manchester By The Sea
Will win: Denzel Washington for his work in Fences
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Nicole Kidman’s presence on this list for her modest contribution to Lion is surely down to Harvey Weinstein’s awards campaigning skills. But Viola Davis is favourite, partly because she’s missed out in the past and partly because clips from the film will provide the big emotional moments of the night.
Should win: Naomie Harris for Moonlight
Will win: Viola Davis for Fences
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Mahershala Ali is the favourite here for his role in Moonlight, although he’s only in the first third of the film. This, surely, will be his night but, if it’s not, keep an eye out for old favourite Jeff Bridges for Hell Or High Water or, at the opposite end of the age spectrum, Lucas Hedges, for Manchester By The Sea.
Should win: Mahershala Ali and,
Will win: Lucas Hedges
‘Expect a lingering close-up of former Hollywood outcast Mel Gibson’