THE KENNY HANDOVER: SOMEONE DROPS THE BATON

What may happen: A great deal of political posturing unfortunately as an uneasy Micheál Martin puts the new administration on notice. New taoiseach Leo Varadkar (or Simon Coveney) similarly warn FF that the new regime is not afraid to seek its own mandate.

Possible outcome: The Kenny handover, particularly if it is effected in late May, results in an early summer recess so that the Cabinet can read themselves into their new briefs.

Alternatively, a row flares up and either Micheál or, more likely, Leo – thanks to improved poll ratings – decides to avoid the mistake made by Gordon Brown and seek his own mandate by way of a snap general election. More likely in the end to evolve into a disruption than a crisis.