Historic victory over the All Blacks just can’t mitigate what is yet an other season of failure
IT WASN’T until close to 6pm last night when it became official − Ireland’s title race is mathematically run as England were crowned back-to-back Six Nations champions in London. However, Joe Schmidt knew the game was up 19 hours earlier, arriving for late-night post-game media duties in Cardiff with a face like thunder, besuited as if coming from a wake.
Despite multiple protestations that only fine margins prevented them securing the win necessary to take the title race to the final weekend, the truth was that Ireland had blown it big time and had only themselves to blame.
For all the hoopla accompanying the ground-breaking beating of the southern hemisphere big three for the first time in the same calendar year in 2016, results since they were last in Cardiff 17 months ago have otherwise become worryingly inconsistent.
On their day, Ireland can pull out the big performance and take the huge scalp. However, in terms of what is required to win trophies, too many parts of their blueprint fluctuate between reliable and unreliable from one week to the next.
The consequences aren’t pretty. Schmidt was a winner in 20 of 26 matches prior to their World Cup quarter-final, a 77 per cent win ratio that delivered back-to-back Six Nations titles and a World Cup pool-topping finish.
However, these figures have plummeted, just eight wins and a draw in 17 matches, the journey coming full circle on Friday night with this latest setback back in Wales, a ferocious match featuring 341 tackles, 156 by Ireland, of which 17 were missed.
It was at the same ground that their troubles started in October 2015, Argentina taking them around the outside, and that defensive problem hasn’t gone away.
Some will crow about Ireland’s greater line speed since Andy Farrell (defence coach who won nothing with England) came on board. And they were frequently quick off the mark in Wales, Johnny Sexton, for instance, snapping two first-half interceptions off Dan Biggar.
But sight should not be lost of the overall try concession rate, three Welsh tries going unanswered in a record 13-point Six Nations win over Ireland. There was hope the first clean sheet of the Farrell era last time out against France was finally a step in the right direction, but Cardiff demonstrated that the weaknesses exposed by Scotland (and others) haven’t gone away.
Twenty-seven tries have been leaked in the defence expert’s 11 matches, a try every 32½ minutes. Contrast that with the previous input of Les Kiss, Ireland conceding just 39 tries in the 27 matches he worked under Schmidt − a try on average every 55 minutes. No wonder they were twice champions and Farrell’s philosophy isn’t of that calibre.
The excuse for the concession of the first try, when play restarted at a halfway lineout, was that Sexton had just exited for a head injury assessment and Paddy Jackson had only just come into the defensive line. Jackson and others shouldn’t have been so flummoxed, though, and anyway, Sexton was at fault for his own departure, sloppily kicking the ball dead giving Wales a scrum that was the catalyst for the kick-through resulting in Sexton’s head colliding with Jonathan Davies leg.
Farrell isn’t the only assistant under scrutiny, Simon Easterby being responsible for a lineout that lost three of 13 throws, most crucially off a 16th minute penalty kicked to touch five metres out. The pack also failed to ruffle openside Justin Tipuric who gathered nine of Wales’ 11 throws, five resulting in slick ball off the top. How he repeatedly gathered unimpeded was damning for a set of forwards whose maul also left much to be desired on both sides of the ball.
Robbie Henshaw’s 69th minute intervention with the maul which ruined a try-scoring opportunity and cost a penalty, got most attention afterwards. Why on earth did a back feel the need to join in something that is a forwards-only preserve?
Ireland, however, just don’t have the same impact in this discipline as when Paul O’Connell called the shots, with too many penalties kicked to touch in the 22 without reward. In sharp contrast, look at how the Welsh hoovered up cover at their maul which led to George North’s second score. Admittedly, Ireland were a man down with Sexton still in the bin, but it was far too easy a stroll in.
Schmidt is another who must look hard in the mirror. Attack is his remit and failure to score a try – just one scored now in 160 minutes – was illustrative of how Ireland struggle for ideas in an opposition’s 22.
Dropped balls were a Cardiff feature, Seán O’Brien, Tadhg Furlong and Keith Earls all fumbling at crucial second-half moments, while a soft Furlong spillage in his own half was the error that commenced the pressure which resulted in Sexton’s defining yellow near the interval.
It was disconcerting that Ireland, despite 62 per cent possession and 64 per cent territory, lost the second half 3-14, failing to generate momentum such as CJ Stander had in the opening period by going around the outside of Scott Williams and racing away to cause havoc. The half-back battle was also lost. Sexton’s sinbin and HIA stole his time while Conor Murray was lost to injury, but the gain-line shy pair only generated 10 metres off eight carries compared to Biggar and Webb who managed 49 metres off 16 carries.
Over-reliance on Murray over the years also caught up, his injury a significant twist as Kieran Marmion isn’t at the same level due to lack of exposure. And as much as the head coach insists Test rugby is a 23-man game, why were four replacements only introduced in garbage time, after sub Taulupe Faletau charged Sexton down for another sub Jamie Roberts to score. That was far more judicious bench use.
What it has done is turn Ireland’s final round showdown with England next Saturday into a St Patrick’s weekend party without fizz. There would be satisfaction in denying the English their fourth ever brace of back-to-back Grand Slams, but this campaign was all about Ireland winning the title in Dublin against their greatest rivals, not securing a minor placing. Still, that minor place is important for Schmidt’s reputation. When Ireland previously lost three matches in the Six Nations, it spelt the end for Eddie O’Sullivan in 2008 and Declan Kidney in 2013.
Schmidt won’t be similarly ousted – he’s too powerful and is contracted to the 2019 World Cup. However, losing three out of five is the territory he will occupy if Ireland lose again in six days’ time.
That’s hardly the desired improvement on last year’s tame offering of two wins and a draw.