We have been given a stark WARNING on Brexit. Now is the time for leadership

TWO global political figures, Michel Barnier and Tony Blair addressed our nation this week, albeit in very different forms. On Thursday, European chief Brexit negotiator Barnier spoke before the joint houses of the Oireachtas. Kudos to Ceann Comhairle Seán Ó Fearghaíl for inviting the French politician to give his first major speech on Brexit since Theresa May triggered Article 50. While he may not be a household name, Barnier will play a key role in the lives of Irish citizens over the coming years.

The following day, Blair, a man known to everyone in Ireland, took to Morning Ireland to address the concerns he has for Britain and Ireland in these uncertain days of Brexit.

Now loathed by many, particularly on the left, he is seen as a quintessentially yesterday’s man, broken by the Chilcot report’s criticisms of his decision to lead Britain to war in Iraq in 2003.

He certainly didn’t sound broken on Friday morning. Asked how he felt now that ‘Blairite’ had become a term of abuse, he reminded interviewer Gavin Jennings that he had won three general elections in a row. Those victories gave him the opportunity to reshape both Labour and British politics.

While his legacy is destined to be tied to the tragedy of the Iraq war, no one should be in any doubt as to Blair’s significance to modern Irish history through his role in negotiating the Good Friday Agreement and bringing peace to Ireland.

Barnier will play a different type of role in Irish history. He is unlikely to take up too much space in the future history books but his endeavours over the next two years in negotiating Brexit will shape what those books will look like.

On Thursday, as Barnier was preparing to give his address, I was deep in the bowels of Leinster House myself giving evidence about the political implications of Brexit to the Oireachtas Joint Committee on Foreign Affairs.

During the question and answer session with the members of the committee – all diligent and well prepared – I was struck by just how great the fear among politicians of all parties is regarding the impact Brexit will have on Ireland and its citizens, particularly those in border counties.

That is why I stressed that, for Ireland, we cannot simply leave it to Barnier to do our negotiating. For all his sophistication and erudition, his address was platitudinous in relation to what he could do for Ireland. It couldn’t but be anything else. He is Europe’s negotiator, not Ireland’s.

A career politician since being first elected to the French national assembly at age 27, the Gaullist Barnier, is the epitome of French sophistication. As a politician of the centre right he is acutely attuned to business interests and is well aware of the dangers Brexit posits towards both Ireland and indeed the union itself.

He is far more attuned to the sensitivities of Brexit than his boss, EU Commission president Jean-Claude Juncker, who appears to have taken Brexit as a personal affront. Barnier, on the contrary, seeks both to understand and allay the fears of those who will bear the brunt of Brexit. The man once dubbed the most dangerous man in Europe by the Tory press, has been at pains since his appointment to stress that Brexit should not lead to a severing of EU-UK ties.

From free trade and the free market, of which Barnier is a lifelong believer, to foreign policy and security, Europe’s top Brexit negotiator is committed to idea of a soft Brexit. He is, however, aware that the British themselves, and many within the EC might not be so well disposed to such a vision of a post-Brexit Europe. How he overcomes those twin obstacles is his crucial challenge.

Barnier was blunt in his assessment of the consequence of Brexit for Ireland, dramatically driving home the point that it comes at a cost. By reiterating that Brexit changes the external borders of the EU, Barnier did what politicians often want to avoid – he spoke a harsh but dutiful truth. There was no gilding the lily. This was a grown-up politician telling the Irish parliament what it had to hear whether it liked it or not.

There was an almost pitying look on Barnier’s face when he listened to Ireland’s political elite respond to his address. He looked attentive but must have groaned inwardly as the session went on and the neoliberal Europe taunt was hurled at him by Ireland’s version of the hard left. He must have been slightly amused, however, when Richard Boyd Barrett demanded a referendum on the final deal, claiming if Barnier believed in democracy he would grant the Irish people this vote. What the British might think of the Irish having a vote on their exit from the EU seems not to have dawned on the great crusader of Irish politics.

Far more serious from Barnier’s point of view was the talk of a special deal for Northern Ireland. From Gerry Adams and Micheál Martin in their responses to Barnier, to Tony Blair in various media appearances during his visit on Friday, ‘special status’ is the new buzz phrase for ensuring a soft Brexit. The problem is that it seems an almost impossible ask for the British Tory government to even begin to think about such a position. The very words ‘special status’ will send a shiver down the spine of every Tory politician, particularly those with long and bitter memories of the Northern conflict.

If special status is granted for Northern Ireland, what happens to Scotland, where calls for independence have certainly not gone away?

It will be hard enough for the British to negotiate their way out of the EU as a single entity without having to do side deals about Northern Ireland.

Theresa May, like Blair, is aware that election victories give the winners strength in international diplomacy. That is why she called for a general election. When she gets her new and increased mandate next month, her hand will be immeasurably strengthened as she negotiates with Barnier. Her majority, which looks as if it will be well north of 100, could either embolden her to push for a hard Brexit or give her the self-confidence to strike a more moderate tone. Whichever position May adopts, the stakes are as high for Ireland. The IMF gave a stark warning on Friday that Brexit will have a negative impact on Ireland.

Negotiating with EU mandarins is not for the weak. The posturing former Greek finance minister Yanis Varoufakis rocked up to meetings with the EU power suits on a motorbike and clad in leather. He left defeated and humiliated.

The lesson Blair reminded us of on Friday was that leadership matters when it comes to getting international deals done. The never-ending pantomime of Enda Kenny’s long goodbye is preventing the next potential leader from carving out his or her strategy on Brexit and the future of this country.

As this week has shown, we are entering an arena with formidable combatants armed with patrician charm, formidable negotiating skills and the capital of vast political experience. It is not a time for prevarication, or posturing. We have never needed leadership more.