SHANE McGRATH WORLD CUP 2019 MUST BE JOE’S MAIN TARGET
CHANGE drops slowly on this country. Nothing can be done without delay. Witness the mortifying conduct of the Taoiseach, who it appears would sooner give up one of his ears than a clammy hold on power. Even when the place is jolted, it resettles into a familiar shape. Bertie Ahern is now respected as a political commentator. The absence of adequate, sanely priced housing is evidence of economic recovery. Publicans whinge and hotels fleece tourists.
At least in sport the Irish reluctance to change is explicable. Where the national soccer and rugby sides are concerned, the relative scarcity of quality compromises the possibility of rotation. This is especially pronounced in Martin O’Neill’s squad, where being competitive depends on selecting the same players game after game.
Joe Schmidt enjoys a wider spread, but Ireland are still reliant on a small number of elite performers in a way New Zealand and England are not. The best two teams in the world have replacements in practically every position that, were they utilised, would not decisively affect the chance of success.
That is not the Irish story, where Johnny Sexton and Conor Murray are irreplaceable and Tadhg Furlong and CJ Stander are close to assuming that status.
However, the draw for the 2019 World Cup pools should concentrate attention on what Ireland need to do to maximise what will be the best opportunity yet to make the semifinals of that tournament. And change is central to that. Though it is almost two and a half years away, Schmidt must start concerning himself now with winning Pool A in Japan.
Injuries and form are two powerful variables that will conspire against detailed plans, but Ireland can nonetheless help themselves by starting to change selection policy so that players who will be around in two years’ time get experience now, starting on the summer tour.
As argued in these pages recently, there is a case for Schmidt to leave veterans Rob Kearney and Jamie Heaslip at home when Ireland travel to play the US and Japan next month. That pair are currently injured, but they are also two long-standing servants who will be 33 and 35 respectively at the next World Cup.
It would be more encouraging to see Schmidt expose Tiernan O’Halloran and Jack Conan to Test starts this summer, but in the longer term Simon Zebo and CJ Stander should be allowed to pursue the shirts long held by Kearney and Heaslip.
Schmidt must also ponder the status of his captain. Rory Best will be 37 come the next World Cup, and it is not plausible to suppose he will still be capable of Test rugby by then. Niall Scannell’s tremendous season with Munster, and the impression he made with Ireland in the Six Nations, should earn him more starts next season, while Seán Cronin should be fully fit again by then.
Auditioning the hooker’s shirt would not disrespect Best but rather constitute sensible planning.
Eddie O’Sullivan suffered for his inability to change at the 2007 World Cup, and that should remain one of the salutary lessons of Irish rugby. However, the problems that manifested themselves at the tournament were symptoms of the refusal to test players more often in the 12 months before the competition.
Not only would two years of change allow Schmidt to work towards the best 20-odd players to compete for starting places in Japan, but the practice of trying out alternatives would also widen his pick.
One of the great advantages of Ireland’s pool draw this week is that it promises challenges that should not carry the ruinous physical cost that defeating France in 2015 did, but Schmidt can, by experimenting over the coming seasons, try and insure against the risk of injuries that inevitably occur at a World Cup.
The Six Nations is sacred in the priorities of northern hemisphere teams, but for 2018 and 2019, Schmidt must be allowed pick teams in the context of the World Cup.
If reaching the last four is as important as everyone insists, then the risk of middling spring-time campaigns should be deemed a reasonable price to pay for that ambition. And in such a scenario, protecting Johnny Sexton has to be paramount.
He will be 34 in Japan, but he can lead Ireland there provided Leinster are told he is a luxury they can only occasionally indulge. Let Joey Carbery emerge as Sexton’s long-term successor, allowing the older man to be nursed towards 2019.
Change can sound radical to Irish ears. In this instance, it is simply essential.
Schmidt must concern himself now with winning Pool A in Japan