The naked truth is that no more than four sides can claim the All-Ireland title

AS LOADED questions go, it was right up there. RTÉ presenter Jacqui Hurley had a lot to do with John Mullane declaring on national radio that he would ‘jump on a horse in the nude and go down the Quay’ if Waterford won a first senior hurling All-Ireland since 1959. Because the question referenced a similar threat to the nation from Pat Spillane back in January, this time regarding the football contenders for the year ahead.

‘If any team other than Dublin, Kerry, Mayo or Tyrone wins the Sam Maguire Cup in 2017, I will ride a horse naked through the victorious county,’ declared the eight-time Kerry All-Ireland winner, adding: ‘Needless to say I don’t expect to have to fulfil that promise.’

Cue candles being lit in various parish halls around the country for just that reason.

Just four contenders? That was before Rory Gallagher proved that Donegal’s best days might not actually be behind them. Instead of being tipped as relegation candidates, for a brief time during the campaign-defining round seven group games, a top-two Division 1 finish and place in a League final was within their grasp. Even the Under 21s’ All-Ireland semi-final defeat and the departure of Stephen McBrearty to the States for the summer hasn’t diminished the new-found sense of optimism in the county that replacements can be found for the major league talents of Eamon McGee, Rory Kavanagh, David Walsh, Christy Toye and Colm McFadden, who all waved a last goodbye since Championship 2016 was put to bed.

It was also before Monaghan defied similar talk, Jack McCarron’s blossoming adding a new dimension to their attacking play and taking some weight off the shoulders of one of the game’s best finishers, Conor McManus. In other words, just what was needed.

Four contenders? Maybe six at a push. Watching Dublin lose a 36-game unbeaten streak in the League final and with it that aura of invincibility has only added to the sense that a hattrick of All-Irelands might not be so straightforward.

Galway’s impressive Division 2 title win pushes them up the rankings, especially after breaking Mayo’s Connacht stranglehold last summer.

A top-four side last year, Tipperary’s positioning is balanced with a spring League campaign in football’s third tier, showing once more in the playoff final that they are a team built for Croke Park.

John Evans has managed and coached county teams in three of the four provinces.

Recruited by Tipperary to lead the resurgence at senior and underage level, he saw firsthand the work that went in to make Munster more than just a traditional duel between his native Kerry and Cork. The groundwork has paid rich dividend in terms of a county senior team good enough to bridge the generations by reaching an All-Ireland semifinal last year. Kieran Bergin’s decision to cut his ties with an All-Ireland winning hurling squad and throw his lot in with the Tipperary footballers only confirms their status as upwardly mobile.

When Séamus McEnaney put out an SOS during his time as Meath manager, Evans did a spell before taking over Roscommon. So he has a good feel for just who are the likely candidates to cause an upset in their provinces and beyond.

‘Tipp have got promoted, got to an All-Ireland semi-final – they couldn’t have done much more. I wouldn’t be surprised if Tipperary pull off another big win in Munster.

‘But with Peter Acheson missing off the team − when you lose a player like that, Tipperary don’t have the back-up.

‘Cork must be really hurting after last year – there will be plenty watching to see if they can rise again.

‘Kerry, meanwhile, are finding new players as they go along. It was great to win the League but the U21s came back with their tail between their legs while four or five have been in with Éamonn Fitzmaurice and putting up their hand for inclusion.’

Evans feels the loss of too many key players will hurt Roscommon in Connacht where Mayo will likely travel ‘with fire in their bellies’ to Salthill to face Galway.

With Leinster looking like it will belong to Dublin once more, that leaves Ulster where Evans expects Donegal to carry their ‘impressive’ League form through.

The loss of Derek Maguire to America is a real blow to Louth who looked well placed for a good summer run while Roscommon’s poor placing for a Division 1 team is down to the tensions in the county that have robbed the squad of some of its best players.

A shocking run of spring results is a good reason why Laois are at number 25.

Looking at the bigger picture, the Munster-Connacht/LeinsterUlster All-Ireland semi-final draw sets up the possibility of a League final rematch in September between Dublin and Kerry.

‘From seven up to 15, Dublin are laden down with talent,’ says Evans. ‘But at the back, Cian O’Sullivan has been showing a bit of vulnerability and if something happens Philly McMahon, they could be really exposed.

‘If Kerry get there with James O’Donoghue back, Kerry can take Dublin.’

Pat Spillane can rest easy.