Fitzgerald will have to be moved out of Justice if Leo wants to oust the Garda Commissioner

TAOISEACH-ELECT Leo Varadkar is considering giving the Justice portfolio to Richard Bruton who would be in a better position to deal decisively with the growing Garda crisis.

The Irish Mail on Sunday understands that the new Fine Gael leader’s circle believes that Garda Commissioner Nóirín O’Sullivan’s position is becoming increasingly indefensible.

It is one of the many issues facing the Dublin West TD when he becomes Taoiseach and has to create his first Cabinet.

The MoS understands that Mr Varadkar will promote one Dublin minister and appoint a minister from the Western seaboard as electoral concerns dictate his Cabinet changes.

It is possible that Mr Varadkar will lead Fine Gael into a general election in the next 18 months – the result of which will define his premiership. Therefore gratitude to TDs for their support of his candidature during the leadership race will play a minor role in his Cabinet selection. This means he will appoint ministers to roles that he believes will gain him seats in strategic parts of the country. Traditionally, the presence of a Cabinet minister in a constituency immeasurably increases that TD’s chances of re-election and improves the chances of their running mate.

The junior minister at the Department of Finance, Eoghan Murphy, who managed Mr Varadkar’s leadership campaign, is the only supporter who appears certain to be promoted to Cabinet. Sources close to Mr Varadkar said last night that Mr Murphy was likely to take the new leader’s position at Social Protection. As Mr Murphy represents Dublin Bay South, there would be six Cabinet ministers in Dublin.

Already in Cabinet are: Taoiseach-elect, Mr Varadkar; Public Expenditure Minister, Paschal Donohoe; Education Minister, Richard Bruton; Tánaiste and Justice Minister Frances Fitzgerald; and Jobs Minister, Mary Mitchell O’Connor.

Chief Whip Regina Doherty represents Meath East and Health Minister Simon Harris represents Wicklow. As both counties are considered part of the greater Dublin area, this region will be over- represented. With eight of the 12 Cabinet ministers coming from this region, it is likely that at least one will be dropped. Fine Gael sources say Ms Mitchell O’Connor is most in danger, having performed badly in her portfolio. Ms Fitzgerald and Mr Harris are likely to be retained. But Ms Fitzgerald has suffered most from the political paralysis. She has been forced to back a damaged Garda Commissioner and it will be difficult for her to sack Nóirín O’Sullivan. Therefore, many expect her to swap jobs with Mr Bruton.

Mr Harris will be left in the political purgatory that is the Department of Health – which will be considered sufficient punishment for backing Varadkar’s leadership rival Simon Coveney so publicly.

Mr Coveney is expected to stay at Housing. Agriculture Minister Michael Creed, who, like Coveney, is a Cork-based TD, is expected to keep his job. Mr Creed was one of the few TDs not to declare but many believe he backed Mr Varadkar.

Fine Gael has a large membership in Cork and Munster in general. But the party performed badly in the south in the 2016 election.

Michael Noonan and Enda Kenny will leave Cabinet and that will mean there will be no Cabinet minister on the whole Western seaboard – leaving Fine Gael critically exposed in a vital region. Many in Fine Gael expect two of the following junior ministers to be promoted – Joe McHugh, of Donegal; Michael Ring, of Mayo; Patrick O’Donovan, of Limerick County and Seán Kyne, of Galway West. Mr Ring and Mr O’Donovan would be favourites.

No Cabinet minister on Western seaboard

Over time, the Departments of Finance and Public Expenditure and Reform will be reunified, but not in the course of this Dáil. It is possible that Mr Donohoe will move to Finance and take some of his old departmental responsibilities. According to sources, he may take on both portfolios while the departments remain separate and free up another Cabinet role.

This could be filled by another Justice portfolio, as there is speculation that the department will be split to deal with various crises.

Regina Doherty, as Chief Whip, sits at Cabinet without a vote. There is speculation she may win a full Cabinet role, but that is mitigated by the emerging regional imbalance. Her promotion – or demotion – would facilitate the promotion of Carlow-Kilkenny TD John Paul Phelan to Chief Whip.

Two other close supporters of Mr Varadkar, Wexford TD Michael D’Arcy and Waterford TD John Deasy, would also expect promotions to the junior ministerial ranks. Noel Rock, one of the first FG backbenchers to oppose Kenny and support Varadkar is a good bet for a shunt upwards.

Former Kenny stalwart Dara Murphy and Noonan supporter Pat Breen are seen as possible demotions. But they could be saved by regional concerns.