Leo vs Micheál – which of the big two will triumph?
LEO VARADKAR
ROLE: Taoiseach-in-waiting. EXPERIENCE: Ministries for Transport and Tourism, Health and Social Protection.
PERSONAL LIFE: Ireland’s first openly gay minister. Unmarried but has a long-term partner, Matt Barrett. AGE: 38
STYLE: Elusively charismatic and very organised. The sharp-suited, supremely fit Varadkar comes across as competent and straight-talking.
STRENGTHS: Huge levels of stamina. An inveterate strategist in the political game. The 48-hour destruction of Simon Coveney’s campaign represents the most effective act of political fratricide in Irish politics.
WEAKNESSES: Still struggles dreadfully with people skills. Gets bored easily, particularly with fools. Keeping fools happy is a key skill for any Taoiseach. BIGGEST ACHIEVEMENT: Becoming Taoiseach, not exactly a shoo-in for a gay man of Indian heritage in a party like Fine Gael. BIGGEST MILLSTONE: The new Taoiseach leads the weakest government in terms of Dáil numbers in the history of the State. GREATEST OPPORTUNITIES: His opponents’ weakness. Fianna Fáil do not want an election but are acutely aware that they are not really thriving in the strange world of ‘new politics’. GREATEST
CHALLENGES: Brexit; the existential crisis in health; resolve the crisis of governance in the key departments of Housing and Justice and deal with an accelerating public sector revolt over pay. LIKELY CLASH POINT: The October Budget. Already the Leo ‘plan’ to cut and run has acquired the status of an urban myth. But Fianna Fáil may decide to pull the rug first. DEFINING QUOTE:: ‘I want to lead a party for people who get up early in the morning. We should not divide our society into one group of people who feel they pay for everything but qualify for nothing and another who believes they are entitled to everything for free and that others should pay for it.’ – Leadership contest. TAOISEACH RATING:: 7/10 – Rates highly in the latent potential stakes but questions still surround his people skills and impulsiveness.
MICHEÁL MARTIN
ROLE: Leader of Opposition and guarantor of government. EXPERIENCE: Minister for Education, Health, Enterprise, Foreign Affairs and Fianna Fáil leader since 2011. PERSONAL LIFE: Married to Mary O’Shea. Five children, two of whom have died. AGE: 56 STYLE: Cautious consensus builder who is trying to position Fianna Fáil on the soft left. Ultimately, ‘steady now’ is his defining personal creed. STRENGTHS: Huge energy and resilience. Martin is knowledgeable, far wilier than he sometimes appears to be and is an excellent strategist, whose Election 2016 focus on a fair society captured the public mood. WEAKNESSES: Talks too much too often with too little effect. Seen, perhaps unfairly, as being a little windy when it comes to confrontation. BIGGEST ACHIEVEMENT: The smoking ban continues to be his legacy issue. His rebuilding of Fianna Fáil from the devastation of 2011 was substantial. BIGGEST MILLSTONE: His party. It is unruly and too many front benchers treat their responsibilities like optional extras. GREATEST OPPORTUNITIES: In selfish terms, keeping this administration on the road may operate to his benefit. The longer this ‘new politics’ Government lasts, the faster the sheen is likely to go off Leo. Maybe. GREATEST CHALLENGES: Fianna Fáil appears to be languishing, stuck between Sinn Féin to the left and Fine Gael to the centre. LIKELY CLASH POINT: The Budget is an obvious one but one of the more problematic issues is how the relationship evolves between the occasionally bumptious Varadkar and Micheál. DEFINING QUOTE:: ‘We sought to secure a government led by Fianna Fáil with the inclusion and support of others. This was the only possible way of removing Fine Gael from government. On three separate occasions, we put this option to the House and on each of those three occasions no party and no Independent supported the alternative.’ – Speaking on the nomination of Enda Kenny as Taoiseach. TAOISEACH RATING: 6/10 – Comes across as competent, but not always very likeable.