Class of 2017 has a real mission impossible

A monstrous schedule, barely any preparation, players on their knees or injured after a ruinous season... and all this against the best team on the planet – but Gatland’s Lions can still pull off...

THE smart money? Three nil to New Zealand, with the bones of the tour picked apart and inevitable further questions about the relevance of the Lions to the modern professional game.

The ever hopeful romantic’s call? Two one to the Lions and kudos for Sam Warburton and Warren Gatland, as the tourists pull off what would be, quite simply, the greatest series win in international rugby history.

Nothing about the Lions’ preparation for this 10-match, three-Test tour to the greatest rugby-playing nation on earth suggests they can win the series.

Woefully underprepared by separate training camps in Wales and Ireland — attended only by players not involved in either the Aviva Premiership and Pro12 finals or the Champions Cup play-offs — cannot possibly have been enough to properly prepare this group of 41 players for what lies ahead.

Add to that the injury-enforced withdrawal of the one Lion who would be guaranteed a start in any world XV — Billy Vunipola — and the task facing Gatland’s men has already moved from gargantuan to Herculean.

‘If they win the series it will be the greatest achievement of any Lions squad,’ said former Lions player and 1997 tour manager Fran Cotton. ‘No Lions team has ever had to face this kind of itinerary. It’s tough even if you are properly prepared. To go there not prepared is crazy and stupid. It doesn’t give you a fair chance. We will be going with no preparation at all to take on an itinerary which offers the players no respite.

‘I’m amazed that the stakeholders who tell us how much they value the Lions have done absolutely nothing to give them proper preparation time. By stakeholders I mean the unions of the four countries that make up the Lions, the New Zealand Rugby Football Union [NZRFU] and the Lions themselves.’

With such a ludicrous schedule, which saw a clearly underprepared Lions side face the New Zealand Barbarians yesterday barely three days after arriving in New Zealand following a near 24-hour flight, the tourists know they are up against it.

Even with the monstrous carrying ability of England’s greatest-ever No8, Toby Faletau, Gatland’s men faced an uphill task. Now they have a moun- tain to climb. Throw in Ben Youngs’ absence on personal grounds and the Lions hopes of recording a first series win in New Zealand since 1971 grows even greater. ‘I’d love to see the Lions do well because I love everything the badge stands for,’ said former Springbok lock Alastair Hargreaves. ‘But can I see them beating the All Blacks, the best team in the world, over the course of three Tests in their own back yard? No. I can’t see that.’ Cotton and Hargreaves are far from alone in believing Gatland and his captain Warburton are destined to come a cropper over the next few weeks. Before the tourists flew out here, less than 24 hours after finally assembling as a squad in west London, an All Black series whitewash was odds on with every serious bookmaker in town.

Unlike on previous tours, six of the Lions non-Test games are against New Zealand’s Super Rugby franchises, with the Hurricanes waiting in Wellington three days after the first Test and four days before the second. Lions fans should write off that fixture now.

Twelve years ago, Clive Woodward took what he rightly described as ‘the best prepared Lions squad in history’ to the land of the long white cloud and returned humbled after one of the most comprehensive series thrashings in living memory.

This time around, there has not even been the pretence that preparation has been anything short of unsatisfactory as rugby’s competing interests of clubs, provinces, national teams and Lions conspire to flog the players.

‘It’s the most difficult itinerary in the history of the game,’ former All Black coach Graham Henry said during the week.

‘I don’t know who arranges these things but I’m pretty sure it wouldn’t be a coach or player. I just hope it doesn’t impact on the tour because these are the best two teams in the world going head to head.’

Ultimately, without an administrator in the sport with the vision to deliver a ‘less is more’ model, seasons get lengthened, demands on players heightened and quality is reduced.

Many among the Lions squad are on their knees already. Gatland voiced his concerns after pulling a rabbit out of a hat to beat Australia four years ago. Was he listened to? No. The Lions had three days’ preparation on the ground in New Zealand before opening their

account yesterday in Whangarei.

‘I said in my report that it comes down to three words: preparation, preparation, preparation,’ insisted Gatland. ‘There are a number of stakeholders involved and they have to understand the future of the Lions and that things should be done properly.

‘Last time we had a week in Hong Kong and arrived in Australia with five days to spare, which feels a lifetime compared to arriving on the Wednesday with the first game that Saturday. Everyone wants more time, but what would be reasonable would be to have a week together with the squad in the UK or Ireland before you travel and arrive seven days before your first game.

‘And the ideal scenario would be not playing a match in the week of the first Test. I hope the Lions are able to negotiate with the stakeholders, the unions and the clubs. It might mean bringing Europe and the finals forward a week so we can have more warm-up time. It is a challenge to bring players from four countries together and gel them quickly, which is why you need both preparation time and five warm-up matches.’

It will not happen. Money will talk and player welfare will walk. Results for the Lions, as a consequence, will also suffer. But suppose the impossible happened, that Gatland and his team can defy all the odds and the pitfalls placed in front of them by greedy administrators.

After all, no one predicted Ireland’s historic win over the All Blacks last autumn in Chicago, or England’s at Twickenham in 2012. In their favour, the Lions have a hard-nosed coach who knows how to win. A Kiwi himself, Gatland knows the lie of the land and all the possible tricks that will be played by his countrymen.

In Owen Farrell, Maro Itoje, Warburton and Johnny Sexton, he has a core of world-class warriors to build a team around. We will lament Billy Vunipola’s absence but, in CJ Stander, Justin Tipuric, Falatau and Sean O’Brien, there are other back-rowers who could yet be stars of the tour.

Lions tours have a funny knack of producing unexpected heroes. Jeremy Guscott in 1989, Ben Clarke in 1993, Jeremy Davidson in 1997, Rob Henderson in 2001, Gareth Thomas in 2005, Tom Croft in 2009, Alex Corbisiero in 2013. Who will be the surprise Lions package in 2017? Whatever happens, it is going to be fascinating viewing.

So, either glory against the odds for Gatland and Warburton — or rugby needs to take a long hard look at itself.