Who’s going to blink first?

Varadkar or Martin could be blown to pieces if they mistime an early election

MANY things may be going through taoiseach-elect Leo Varadkar’s head this morning. Which dashing blue suit to wear for his big day on Wednesday? Who to shaft or promote in the reshuffle? Who to put into the increasingly crucial role of Foreign Affairs? One thing, however, I can guarantee he is not contemplating, is an early general election.

The British general election, which saw the the Tories get a good kicking, is the latest in a series of democratic outcomes to terrify establishment politicians.

Theresa May follows Enda Kenny, David Cameron, Hillary Clinton and many others as the latest to utterly misjudge a capricious electorate.

May’s miscalculation is actually remarkably similar to the election here in 2016. Enda Kenny went to the people at the wrong time (he should have gone in November 2015) and was exposed as a tired and uninspired campaigner.

Varadkar, a man with an identifiable Tory streak, will not repeat their mistakes. His leadership campaign has shown he understands the importance of timing.

There is a palpable relief to move on from the farce of Kenny’s last year in office. It was a government led by a man who was more interested in photo ops with world leaders than tackling real and very evident problems at home. But Varadkar’s choreographed opening sequence is over, and now we enter a tense Mexican standoff.

The new taoiseach and his team will face Micheál Martin and Fianna Fáil’s largely unknown frontbench.

And like in any shootout, the first group to make a false move could be blown to pieces like a bunch of miscalculating desperados in a Spaghetti Western.

THOSE close to Martin believe he has been tense of late. In the face of a potential Leo bounce, there is a nagging feeling he may have missed his big chance. In February, Kenny blundered into a crisis of his own making over Garda whistleblower Maurice McCabe and child protection agency Túsla. Crucially, Martin didn’t move and now what many Fianna Fáil TDs most feared has happened – Leo Varadkar, the charismatic media darling, is in charge. Even before Varadkar was elected Fine Gael leader, a recent poll showed Fine Gael had gone up five points to 29% and Fianna Fáil had fallen seven to 21%. Enda Kenny, Fianna Fáil’s greatest electoral advantage, has been neutralised.

But Martin judged the time was not right. Among the many considerations that politicians in Leinster House cite against an election is a belief, intensified after the UK election, that the party that causes a general election will be blamed for it by the public. And punished.

A constant refrain one close adviser of Martin’s cited during the February crisis was: ‘The public will not thank us for causing an election.’ The British election suggests that that may be right.

Varadkar, who will blitz broadcast studios and friendly newspapers with soft, fluffy interviews, is sure to get a sustained bounce. If he was to lead Fine Gael into a general election during that bounce period it could be his big opportunity. If he doesn’t take it then this time next year, Varadkar could be feeling the conflicting emotions that Martin is now experiencing. So he too will be conflicted. But again, the British result will reinforce his inclination to wait.

Because another warning from Theresa May’s problems was this – she, like him, was untested as a campaigning leader.

Varadkar was first elected in 2007 and in 2011 Fine Gael were handed government by a bailout-stricken Fianna Fáil. His only test as a senior politician was in 2016, and he failed. Fine Gael ran an appalling campaign, and he was marked by its failure. At no point did he attempt to save the campaign.

Now he is the man in charge. And bounce or no bounce, he must revive a fallen party.

Fine Gael’s ‘corporate confidence’ has been damaged. The party structure decayed under Kenny – hit by poor 2014 local elections where it lost 105 seats, so it is short of blooded candidates and few impress outside of incumbent TDs.

THERE are no Oireachtas members in the Fine Gael heartland of Tipperary. Their current best option is to turn to two young firebrand TDs, Tom Hayes, 65, or Noel Coonan, 66, both of whom lost their seats in the 2016 carnage. Senator James Reilly, nearly 62, wants to run again in Dublin Fingal, while veterans Paddy Burke and Michael Ring want to get together on a ticket in Mayo.

Frank Feighan was so unpopular after the closure of Roscommon A&E in 2011, he did not run in 2016. Don’t worry, he wants to run again. Meanwhile, many of the women candidates – required under gender quotas – who failed in 2016 have been allowed to drift away.

In contrast, Martin was highly effective in 2016, running a campaign based upon the knowledge that the public were not going for Fine Gael’s Tory-like manifesto.

He brought his party from 20 seats to 44 while Fine Gael lost 26.

But Martin too has his travails. He is 56 and he will have to have a cut at the top job soon.

With wildly fluctuating poll ratings of anywhere between 20% and 30%, Fianna Fáil could either win or lose seats in a snap election. If Martin forced an election and lost seats, his leadership would be lost.

So for now, the two civil war parties will continue their dance of death – Fianna Fáil has committed to support a minority Fine Gael Government for three Budgets, bringing us to October 2018.

Yet there is likely to be a presidential election in 2018. And in 2019 there are local and European elections.

So there is no perfect time for a general election.

An experienced opposition leader with an inexperienced front bench, versus an inexperienced taoiseach, with an experienced cabinet (most likely). Unusually from a historical perspective, this gives Fine Gael a slight advantage.

And while the avoidance of a election may seem cynical and undemocratic to many, perhaps with Brexit, Trump and a fragile financial recovery the desire of the establishment parties for stability is, at least, understandable.