Ireland to swelter in damagingly hot summers by 2100 unless action taken

IRELAND could swelter in record summer temperatures of up to 35 degrees Celsius by the end of the century unless countries curb emissions.

Summer days in Ireland have hit the late twenties and 30 degrees on rare occasions in this decade, but new analysis has Ireland on course to see a rise of just under five degrees Celsius within 80 years if action is not taken.

Using data from NASA climate models, new analysis from the Climate Impact Lab – a collaboration of economists, climate scientists and computational scientists from leading research institutions – has estimated future temperatures if greenhouse gas emissions continue to rise through to 2100.

While the sun-starved nation may immediately jump on the idea of a Mediterranean-style summer, Irish environmental economist Amir Jina said there could be mixed blessings with rising temperatures on the island.

‘If our hottest summer day now is around 30 degrees Celsius during the day, we could imagine that high may get pushed up to close to 35 degrees under high emissions,’ said the assistant professor at the University of Chicago and one of the founding members of the influential Climate Impact Lab.

‘Of course in Ireland we always want to be able to have a barbecue or head to the beach without worrying about the rain or cold, so our minds might jump to that. And it could well be true.

‘But Ireland probably stands to gain in other, more important ways – milder winters and warmer, but not extreme, summers will mean better crop yields and fewer illnesses or deaths from cold.

‘We shouldn’t fully discount an event like the France heatwave of 2003, though. If Ireland does have a period like that, we don’t have the air conditioning that will protect us from the worst effects.’

For summer temperatures, Ireland can expect a likely increase of between 1.7 and 4.9 degrees for high emissions and an increase of between 0.2 and 2.1 degrees for moderate emissions, according to the research carried out by the Climate Impact Lab.

Dr Jina, who grew up in Dublin, is well versed on the country’s longing for sunshine but cautions that Ireland is quite unprepared for extremely hot 35 degree days.

He added: ‘That is very hot. It is at temperatures like this that we begin to see crop damage. There is also a one in 20 chance that we will see an increase of over six degrees by the end of the century under high emissions.’