Crime and terror the real threat of a Brexit border
BELFAST was anticipating Leo Varadkar’s first trip as Taoiseach this weekend as if he were a distant relative visiting from a faraway country of which they know little. He is a relatively unknown quantity: a large majority take their news from local or British media and few regularly tune in to RTÉ.
I was in the city earlier in the week and everyone had questions about the ‘real Leo’. How Irish is he? Does he really understand Irish history? Is he a popinjay politician, more style than substance?
No one knew what to expect from a sophisticated, even exotic young man who didn’t arrive with the traditional baggage of history or even genealogy.
However, the Taoiseach was not there to satisfy their social curiosity: he is a key player in Brexit, the biggest political and economic threat in two generations to Ireland, north and south.
A hard border is a back-to-thefuture option for this Republic and Britain – with re-incentivised organised crime, terrorism and people smuggling. Organised criminals, loyalist paramilitaries and dissident republicans will make multimillions when the customs union between north and south is broken.
It was impossible to effectively control the border through 30 years of the Troubles when two armies and two police services patrolled it, so what chance have electronic gadgets and microwave monitors?
Despite collaborative policing, only 60 people have been convicted for fuel smuggling – which costs the UK exchequer €335m a year – with only one person jailed since 2011.
Some of Sinn Féin/IRA’s most trusted leaders in south Armagh made millions from smuggling and when further opportunities arise they will go back to a racket they dominated for generations.
Talk of the enforcing a ‘frictionless’ Irish border is laughable, but the potential for a physical border to become a symbol for murderous dissidents is a grim reality.
George Hamilton, the Chief Constable of the PSNI, told the House of Lords that dissidents would use new border controls ‘as a rationale for continuing violence’.
They would make extensive use of the border to frustrate counter terrorism investigations, he said.
Hamilton was also concerned that the loss of European Arrest Warrants will hinder the Gardaí and PSNI pursuing criminals who use the border to evade prosecution.
Some 43% of Northern Ireland’s organised crime groups have a cross-border dimension, he said.
Minister for Justice Charlie Flanagan said he didn’t believe the Chief Constable’s remarks were well-founded. But since the border was established in 1921, the vast majority of people who live nearby regarded it as a serious social impediment and actively subverted it or ignored it.
The British government is divided and confused about all aspects of Brexit, particularly the border.
Leo Varadkar told the UK it was their responsibility to design a border that the majority of people on this island do not want.
It played well in the Republic but he was much more conciliatory and mature on his Belfast visit offering practical suggestions to deal with Brexit and the border.
Privately, even the DUP agree with his hopes and his proposal for a transition period if Britain insists on leaving the customs union and the single market.
Britain is our biggest customer, nearest neighbour and the bonds have been so close for so long that no Taoiseach could contemplate anything but continuing co-operation with the UK.
Everyone is deeply apprehensive about Brexit and the DUP’s noisy confidence is really whistling past the graveyard as a potential political and economic catastrophe looms.
Leo Varadkar will need the wisdom of Solomon to accommodate the fears and aspirations of the two communities in Northern Ireland this weekend.
And then there are the other 27 members of the EU. The Museum of Modern Art in New York (MoMA) has included an Aran geansaí among 111 of the world’s most iconic fashion items. The late Grace Kelly wore one yachting and Marilyn Monroe wore one on stage, but action man hero Steve McQueen also turned out in the knitted symbol of Irish manhood. Brendan Howlin was a leadership contender for the Labour Party in September 2002 when he was photographed wearing an Aran sweater on the front page of the Daily Star. I have no intention of adding a cheap shot or an expensive libel to the chastising chorus in full voice since Kevin Myers’ hymn of praise to himself in last week’s Sunday Times. But it is sickening to see the queue kicking him when he is down – and their condemnation continuing after he lost his job and offered a convincing apology. If only his other critics had been as fair-minded as the Jewish commentators who leavened their disapproval with an absence of malice. Sinn Féin has confirmed that the Venezuelan electoral council – criticised internationally as a puppet organisation for President Maduro – covered costs of Westminster MP Mickey Brady’s trip to observe the elections there. Mr Brady declared the elections were ‘fair and equitable’ although the Venezuelan government refused reputable international observers entry to the country. Sinn Féin supported Maduro’s scandal-ridden regime through motions at its Ard Fheiseanna in 2014 and 2015.