POSSIBLE RUNNERS AND RIDERS FOR THE ÁRAS
MICHAEL D. HIGGINS 4/6
He’s the warmest of favourites if he runs. He has been a successful President who has trodden the dangerous line of being relevant while managing – barely – to avoid breaching the powers of his office in his critique of austerity. Will not fancy a long race.
ENDA KENNY 10/1
Enjoying retirement now, but a year is a long time in Mayo. Will not be assailed by selfdoubt over his capacity to win. Could go down in history as the first FG leader to win the double – although his lingering year-long political death may have queered the pitch.
MIRIAM O’CALLAGHAN 16/1
The rumours just won’t go away. And she’s never denied them. The question is less whether she wants to run, and more would she run as an independent or for her brother’s FF party? But will she take the risk of jumping from the safe berth of RTÉ for an uncertain tilt at the Park?
FRANCES FITZGERALD 20/1
Cautious and clever – which means she will not be easily seduced unless Leo plays the gender card. But having a female president hasn’t been a radical idea in Ireland since 1990.
MICHAEL FITZMAURICE 25/1
Michael Fitzmaurice is one of those Grand National-style outsiders who, on his day and with the right going, could cause a massive surprise. And while he’s a clever operator who won’t run unless he sees a path to victory, he’ll have to extend beyond his rural heartland if he wants to be more than an also-ran.
GERRY ADAMS 33/1
What better way would there be for Sinn Féin to get rid of a historical encumbrance?
If he were able to bring the vote up to the magical 20% ceiling it would offer Adams a respectable exit.
But... there’s his past.
BERTIE AHERN 40/1
As usual, the real intentions of Bertie Ahern are unknown. Most suspect he is just having fun teasing Micheál but many a man has talked himself into a scenario that he’s been unable to walk out of. Not a runner unless the electorate are in really peculiar form.
PAUL MURPHY 66/1
Our smoked salmon socialists are not going to turn down the opportunity of three months of free publicity – for the sake of the movement. Could be anyone from Clare Daly to Richard Boyd Barrett, but, ego and a capacity to talk means Murphy the privatelyeducated revolutionary is out in front.
GERARD CRAUGHWELL 100/1
Could the man who started the drama this week with his declaration cause a McNulty affair-style shock?
No, he couldn’t.