Mayo have proved themselves equals of one of the greatest ever sides – but Dublin will win

IN THE midst of all the soft talk coughed up this week to justify giving them a chance, some impressive hard facts were rolled out to give Mayo direction and hope.

On the face of it, the numbers crunched by dont foul − the excellent online GAA stat blog − offer only cold comfort as it set a tape on the impact of Stephen Cluxton’s kickouts.

It noted that Cluxton had gone short with 63 of his 96 kick-outs (66%) in the Championship and they worked the ball up the field three out of every four times (73%) to create a shooting chance. In so doing, Dublin took a total of 3-27 from all their short kick-outs this summer, meaning that for every two short kick-outs Cluxton takes his team score a point.

Where’s Mayo comfort in that? Just read on.

Over both the drawn and replayed finals last year, Cluxton went short with 25 kick-outs (65%) but yet Dublin only managed 0-3 directly.

So while Dublin can score from one in two short kick-outs against everyone else, their average against Mayo is running at a far less profitable one in eight. That reveals far more than Mayo’s capacity to defend kick-outs, it goes right to their core strength.

If you park the seductive narrative that Mayo’s sense of destiny is so potent that they can literally will themselves over the line, finding a way to do so becomes a challenge.

Jim McGuinness offered up a detailed blueprint in his Irish Times column, arguing that a marriage of intensity and mass coordinated defence that would spook Dublin into either turning over or kicking the ball away provided a pathway.

But that seems a little dated now given how Dublin have evolved and the last thing Mayo need to do is abandon what they do best and menaces Dublin the most.

Mayo’s stout and individual based defence in the face of Cluxton’s short kick-outs is testament to physical intensity and the precision of their tackling which is why they have marched Dublin pretty much to the line – bar the 2015 semi-final replay and even then the seven-point margin was a gross distortion of the balance of play that day – in their last seven summer meetings. No one has come closer.

It’s not that Mayo have done the wrong things, they just haven’t been doing the right things well enough. They badgered Dublin for long periods of last year’s drawn final but, when on top, missed chances, freak own goals, and unforced turnovers cost them the All-Ireland their play deserved.

Man for man they have proved themselves equals of one of the greatest teams that ever played this game.

There is no need to pitch a curve ball today, but they need get the basics right.

They need a defined role for Aidan O’Shea – one that will see him deep for restarts and close to the opposition goal in open play – not so much to ensure that he has a monster game, but that he has a productive one.

They need to counter Dublin’s mobility in the middle of the field − which would be helped if Paddy Durcan is in from the start. But other than that Mayo don’t need change, they need to keep faith. But will that be enough?

When Stephen Rochford was asked last week if there was hope to be garnered from how competitive Mayo had been last year against the champions, he dismissed it as a ‘history question.’

He was right. The question is are they better this year − and there is no definitive answer to that.

Their performance level in their last three games would suggest they are, as would the individual contributions from Keith Higgins, Colm Boyle, Tom Parsons, Jason Doherty, Andy Moran and O’Shea.

On the flip side, they don’t have a certifiable full-back, Lee Keegan has lost a little oomph, Diarmuid O’Connor a lot more, Séamie O’Shea’s mobility concerns while Cillian O’Connor is not the force he once was.

And are Dublin better? Yes. Jack McCaffrey’s return alone tells us that, while James McCarthy replacing Denis Bastick in the middle of the field has been transformative. Paul Mannion is now a strike forward of substance and Con O’Callaghan’s rookie season has charmed to the point that Dublin are not even spooked by the idea that Diarmuid Connolly (left) may not start. There is enough in that to prosecute that the best team of our generation is even better, but even then this is not going to be straightforward.

Dublin will get hit today and they will get their heads scrambled and as a result some of their number will not perform.

O’Callaghan, who is likely to end up in the company of Keegan or Boyle, could be in that club but Jim Gavin will find ways by leaning on his Harlem Globetrotter bench.

Mayo have hope, but Dublin have the depth to cement their belief this is the day they will be proclaimed one of the greatest ever.

Dublin by five.