Leo lost game of poker by showing Micheál losing hand

SHORTLY after 4pm last Saturday our photographer snatched a picture of Taoiseach Leo Varadkar outside the Alexander Hotel on Dublin’s Fenian Street. He looked pensive and worried, his shoulders were hunched.

Moments later Fianna Fáil leader Micheál Martin bounced out the same front door. He and his wise adviser, Deirdre Gillane, were smiling.

Mr Martin and Ms Gillane had, minutes earlier, seen further incriminating evidence against Tánaiste Frances Fitzgerald. Their jubilant faces said ‘the game is up’.

During my poker-playing years, my mind always clung to an axiom: ‘When you look around the table and you can’t see the sucker, it’s you.’

Of all the mistakes Mr Varadkar made last week, this was the most shocking. He didn’t realise he was the sucker. Mr Martin understood.

Those of us with strong suspicions of Leo Varadkar’s talents did not take pleasure in his fall last week – we doubled down on our anxieties for the future.

For if the Taoiseach can fail so spectacularly in the elementary task of dispatching a contaminated minister from his Cabinet we must fear for his chances in more complex and dangerous tasks.

Mr Varadkar and his ministerial albatross, Frances Fitzgerald, presented her scandalously late resignation almost as a favour, for it prevented a general election. That election, Mr Varadkar said in the Dáil while bidding farewell to the ‘good woman’ Fitzgerald, would have caused destruction. He said that over the next few weeks the Government will need to ‘focus on the Brexit negotiations, both phase one and phase two’.

He added that the Finance Bill, Appropriations Bill and other important financial legislation must be enacted. Over the next few months, he reminded us: ‘We also have the important work of the Committee on the Eighth Amendment to complete, paving the way for a referendum next year.’

The worst-case scenario, according to Mr Varadkar, was ‘all of these would fall in the event of a general election’. Mr Varadkar will be our Taoiseach during this tumultuous period. These are challenges for a leader of near god-like abilities. They are faced by a Taoiseach who revealed himself as very, very mortal. What all of these challenges require is the most fundamental political skill – the ability to negotiate.

Last week Fianna Fáil leader Micheál Martin, a deeply experienced politician, showed that he can negotiate. He has also learned his trade, over 35 years, in the cutthroat world of frontline Fianna Fáil politics. Fianna Fáil understands power and how to wield (and abuse) it better than Fine Gael.

Mr Martin was part of the Fianna Fáil national executive that expelled former Minister Des O’Malley from the party for ‘conduct unbecoming’ in 1985. He was 25, and it was an early lesson from the Machiavellian Charlie Haughey. If a leader’s political path is obstructed by an opponent then they must be politically exterminated.

Indeed when I wrote the story of Bertie Ahern’s demise in 2008 there was no doubt in Bertie’s camp that Mr Martin played a pivotal role in pushing the Taoiseach. Ultimately it was Micheál Martin who moved on another Taoiseach, Brian Cowen, to end his career. As Michael Corleone used say: ‘It’s nothing personal. It’s strictly business.’

Mr Martin and his backroom team watched with bafflement last week as Mr Varadkar pointlessly stood by a hopelessly damaged minister.

Mr Varadkar failed when he didn’t sack Ms Fitzgerald, or force her to resign. He failed the sucker test, by continuing to support her after Saturday’s Alexander Hotel email revelation.

By Monday night, loyal backbencher Noel Rock, shortly before airtime, pulled out of an appearance on TV3’s Tonight Show. The following morning, the junior minister Jim Daly pulled out of Seán O’Rourke’s radio show. Neither wanted to defend Ms Fitzgerald.

Yet Cabinet Minister Simon Coveney conducted a defence of Ms Fitzgerald on RTÉ television on Monday night that was worthy of the ludicrous Iraqi general who became known as Comical Ali, after refusing to acknowledge the presence of US tanks in the 2003 invasion of his country.

Another Cabinet Minister Simon Harris defended Ms Fitzgerald outside Government Buildings on Tuesday morning, at the very moment Mr Varadkar and his Secretary General Martin Fraser were walking Ms Fitzgerald to her office to write her letter of resignation.

Backbenchers were damaged, senior Cabinet colleagues were humiliated.

My doubts about Mr Varadkar’s political skills began to be formed during the spring 2016 talks to construct Enda Kenny’s second administration. Independent Alliance TDs told me he sat at the end of the table texting on his phone, looking completely uninterested. Mr Coveney did most of the negotiating.

Last summer, I wrote about his first public appearance as leader, at the late cabinet minister Austin Deasy’s funeral. I could see things would get worse. He didn’t know how to interact, he didn’t know how to behave as an Irish political chieftain.

Since he became Taoiseach, there has only been spin and image building. He has set up a new monster spin department, the Strategic Communications Unit, in an effort to concentrate on his perceived strengths – image and media performance.

But even in this sphere he has failed. His first national conference was a shambles. His lacklustre speech was given to a drab, badly lit and not quite full room in Cavan. He again failed to mix properly with the troops, who only come to these things to touch the hem of the boss’s garment.

He even made mistakes in interviews at the Slieve Russell Hotel.

ABACKBENCH Fine Gael TD devastatingly summarised Mr Varadkar’s performance to me in the Dáil bar on Tuesday: ‘Every reason for replacing our last leader has just been negated.’

Varadkar failed his first major political test.

Yet for all the skill Mr Martin displayed, he will also recognise that he got lucky. Further incriminating emails dropped at the perfect time in negotiations.

Mr Varadkar is young, whipsmart and remains hugely popular. His bad week ended with a big win – the EU’s Donald Tusk’s declaration of support for Ireland in Brexit negotiations.

Mr Varadkar is a clean-living man and is not known as a poker player. But if he studies the game he will see it is not a game of luck. Poker is about strategy.

Even if you lose hands for most of the night, if you display stamina and stay in the game, one big pot can save you. And there is always another game.