Leo will never get a better time to f ight election (honestly)
THE logic for the Taoiseach to call a general election in the autumn is so compelling that I brought forward to September a foreign holiday planned for late October. Better to strike when Varadkar is hot than wait for his current popularity to wane as over-exposure dulls his novelty value.
Even if Leo Varadkar fails to get the result he campaigns for in the referendum on the Eighth Amendment in May, why would the prospects for him or Fine Gael improve by postponing an election for a year or more?
Maybe it is a coincidence, but Fine Gael party bosses are also preparing for an ard fheis in Dublin as soon as practicable after the Budget in October.
The Taoiseach must be tempted to cut and run after his party’s poll ratings improved by four points and opened up an 11-point lead over Fianna Fáil last week. Even better for him, his leadership satisfaction ratings climbed even further ahead of Micheál Martin’s.
Upbeat economic news running beside shrinking unemployment figures and soaring opinion polls after the promises of Project 2040 will give both the Taoiseach and Fine Gael another bounce.
This year, 2018, will be the zenith for Leo Varadkar and Fine Gael.
The alternative is to hold off until after the results of the local government and European elections in June next year given that the confidence and supply deal with Fianna Fáil expires in 2020.
THE Taoiseach will not have forgotten that Theresa May had a 21-point lead over Labour in the polls last April when she called an election in Britain. Since then, only the sundering of her party and the resurrection of Jeremy Corbyn has matched her personal humiliation.
Mrs May’s catastrophic election is like a parable warning of the perils waiting for opportunistic politicians. Brexit continues to haunt politics on both sides of the Irish Sea, but Ireland can use Britain’s monumental miscalculation to win influential friends in Europe and in the UK.
Time is on the Taoiseach’s side and he can afford to wait for a Tory government, or its Labour successor, to sort it all out.
Shrewd diplomacy while keeping a watchful eye on both Brussels and London has paid economic and political dividends.
Leo Varadkar has impressed many leaders around Europe and his confidence among international leaders has given him an edge over his rival at home. Some of his closest allies say he is enjoying learning his chosen profession, which has enhanced his reputation and improved Ireland Inc’s international standing. Maybe he will hold his nerve and wait for another two years and run on his record. But I will not be changing my travel plans for the autumn again: the compelling logic is for Leo Varadkar to go to the country when his reputation is peak. In October, the Taoiseach will be living out the lyrics of Kenny Rogers’s biggest hit, The Gambler: ‘You got to know when to hold ’em, know when to fold ’em/Know when to walk away and know when to run.’ That is still the ultimate test of any politician.