Look to Leo Varadkar’s performance in his own constituency before you start believing our hip young Taoiseach has suddenly developed superpowers

How can one accurately compile polls when Leo Varadkar is Taoiseach? He’s so different. Other Taoisigh spent weekends attending humdrum events in their constituencies, doing the rounds of GAA matches or skulling pints in local pubs with political operatives. Some even canvassed their constituency every Saturday. Not Leo. Last Saturday evening he was in the fashionable Michelin-starred Heron and Grey restaurant in Blackrock, where the owners advise patrons to set aside at least three and a half hours for dinner. Its tasting menu for one will set you back €74.

On Sunday evening he saw the arthouse film of the moment, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri – but not in the multiplex minutes from his Blanchardstown duplex, he went to the hip Light House Cinema in Smithfield.

He reviewed the movie during a Dáil debate on Tuesday, saying: ‘Not sure what to make of it … it was good, but hard to warm to the heroine in it, I have to say.’

This was not the first outing of his film preferences – who can forget his mawkish reference to the saccharine Hugh Grant vehicle Love Actually on his first visit to Downing Street. Still, his poll ratings soar. His personal poll ratings recently hit 60%, making him the first Taoiseach to hit this mark since Bertie Ahern. Fine Gael are riding high too, at 36% in one poll, around 32% in most others. Fianna Fail, the reluctant supporters of Fine Gael’s minority Government, are hovering around 25% or 26%.

If there truly is an 11% gap between Fine Gael and Fianna Fail then why isn’t the Taoiseach preparing for a general election?

Because, as sources in both parties agreed last week, Fine Gael’s poll ratings will not manifest themselves in a resounding general election victory if it were to happen imminently.

Fine Gael has internal polling. Fianna Fail does door-to-door constituency polls.

Some published polls put Fianna Fail at 17% in Dublin. Fianna Fáil’s polls have them at 21%. Fianna Fail data has it in the high twenties nationally and Fine Gael in the low thirties.

Political parties are run by number-obsessed professionals. But fundamentally politics is about passion, toil and, most critically, people. The decisive personality is Leo Varadkar.

The Taoiseach’s publicity blitz, marshalled by his Strategic Communications Unit (SCU), has been unrelenting. The National Development Plan was run with the precision and exuberance of those elaborate circuses of pageantry you see in Pyongyang. Yet, beyond ensuring lavish resources for the SCU, he has yet to perform any substantial feats.

Having been elected Taoiseach in June, Varadkar appointed a Cabinet of callow Leo-ites, former Kenny-ites and Coveney-ites. He then joined his colleagues on a three-month holiday. The October Budget caused barely a ripple and then there was a huge row with Fianna Fail in November over the former Minister for Justice Frances Fitzgerald. Yet, it was a legacy crisis from Kenny’s regime. Fitzgerald – a Kenny-ite – resigned and Varadkar breezed through it.

The trolley crisis came and went, as it always does, in December and January. Cynical politicians know that only lasts two months. The public largely forgets about it by February. The abortion referendum and the Dáil attempts to get acceptable legislation on the statute books will take at least a year. With his Tánaiste Simon Coveney opposing his Taoiseach’s stance, and parties divided, this will finally be a test of Varadkar’s character and ability.

There will be other unseen tests. I’m sure Enda Kenny, in 2011, did not envisage Irish Water destroying his Government and legacy. One figure worth considering is the 50% of total votes Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil secured between them in the 2016 general election. This meant the two centre parties had re-established their hegemony after the post-crash flirt with radicalism. All data indicates that share has increased substantially since. At the next election – for the first time since 2007 – we will see a straight duel between the Old Firm parties for the right to lead a Government.

The election will come down to key battleground constituencies. The parties’ spin is almost identical on the swing constituencies. The rivalry, say the spin doctors, will be settled by ambitious rookie candidates winning the fight, or by a veteran who failed last time reclaiming their seat. A long-term aspirant might break through.

Fianna Fail speaks of hopes for young candidates Justin McAleese (Dublin Rathdown); Senator Catherine Ardagh (Dublin South Central) or older debutant Joe Flaherty (Longford-Westmeath winning the party an extra seat. Perhaps Mary Fitzpatrick (Dublin Central) will finally breakthrough in the constituency Bertie Ahern once dominated. Mary Hanafin could win back a seat in Dun Laoghaire, they say.

Fine Gael will look for a new candidate to emerge from a tortuous selection process to win a seat in Tipperary. Fine Gael strategists say they will look to Frank Feighan (Sligo Leitrim), Michelle Mulherin (Mayo) and Kieran O’Donnell (Limerick City) to win back seats.

Predictably, but with amazing synchronisation, perhaps fearful of upsetting powerful TDs, the briefings from the two parties ignore the elephant, or elephants, in the room.

The eventual victor in this death match between Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil will be decided by the inclination of senior party figures to acquire viable running mates and then help them get elected. It was once treated as a dark joke in the parties, that senior TDs would thwart the ambitions of emerging politicians in their constituencies to protect their interests.

But, now, this narrow-minded selfishness is the fatal flaw shared by Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael. In Fianna Fáil, frontbench TDs (and aspirant ministers) Billy Kelleher (Cork North Central); Willie O’Dea (Limerick City) and Niall Collins (Limerick County) were allowed to run on single tickets. The three garnered huge votes which should have been shared. Three more frontbenchers Darragh O’Brien (Dublin Fingal); Timmy Dooley (Clare) and Robert Troy (Longford Westmeath) were elected alone while making negligible efforts to assist running mates.

In Galway West, Éamon Ó Cuiv topped the poll and two running mates were cast aside. None of them have displayed enthusiasm in supporting potential running mates. This phenomenon is even more striking in Fine Gael. Of the current Fine Gael Cabinet members, half were elected alone. Heavyweights Tánaiste Simon Coveney; Minister for Jobs Heather Humphreys; Minister for Agriculture Michael Creed; Minister for Education Richard Bruton; Minister for Culture Josepha Madigan all let down their party.

The biggest letdown was Leo. He topped the poll in Dublin West with 9,021, 19.66% of the vote. His running mate Catherine Noone only secured 2.56% of the vote. She returned only 1,125 votes.

Varadkar would surely bore you for hours with the complicated and Byzantine reasons for this failure. But a senior figure in the Noone camp explained it succinctly: ‘He only cares about himself.’

It’s almost unheard of that a Taoiseach would be elected without a running mate. On election results night, if you want to predict whether Fianna Fail or Fine Gael wins – look to Dublin West. The number of Fine Gael TDs elected here will show you which party wants it more.