Michael Duignan
This summer’s race for Liam MacCarthy will be hardest ever run
‘ON RECENT SUMMER FORM, I FEEL GALWAY CAN COME GOOD’
THIS feels like a massive preview of the unknown. A radical round-robin format in Leinster and Munster is new to us all – players, managers, supporters, pundits. Add in a modified All-Ireland series which features the top two teams from the Joe McDonagh Cup and you have three separate conundrums to figure out.
The old knockout format was really straightforward: X versus Y with one winner. Then the qualifier system was introduced in 1997, bringing second chances and back doors.
This, however, is a completely new scenario. The top five counties in Leinster and Munster playing four Championship matches, two home and two away?
Suddenly you have to factor in the impact of home advantage. The impact of the squad and how teams are stretched. If teams are going well or not, when to push players to the limit or when to put others into action.
I spoke recently about teams finishing on equal points and how a bonus point system for a team that scores three goals or more would add another layer to the table and help to separate the final placings. Four points for a win, two for a draw and a bonus point for three goals or more.
What we have though is massively exciting. I’m so looking forward to five weeks of top class hurling activity. And that’s just the round robin.
What we’re facing into from an inter-county perspective is unprecedented. Home and away matches, partisan crowds, Saturday or Sunday afternoon games with the sun shining – it has the potential to provide great entertainment. And there is plenty of time when it’s all over to look at what’s wrong or right, particularly whether a break week needs to be added in the middle to allow players time to recover.
I tried to apply a bit of science to it all by studying the home Allianz League form.
It’s a stand-out stat that 70 per cent of games in Division 1A were won by the home team. That includes the League quarter-finals and knockout stages right up to the final where Kilkenny had home advantage and beat Tipperary. This could be crucial in Munster where the margins are so fine – is that going to carry through to the final table? Or will the Championship create a different dynamic? Waterford’s situation is unique in that they don’t have any home matches. It could put them in jeopardy. They don’t have that comfort blanket to fall back on, especially if you lose an away game. In a tight Munster Championship, which is near impossible to figure out, that 70 per cent record could do damage to Waterford’s chances.
I’d say nothing surer than you are going to have teams finishing on equal points.
Separating teams – whether on head-to-head or score difference – could be a big factor. The format definitely throws up the likelihood of two, if not three, teams finishing on the same points which will be a huge talking point.
Again, the points system is sure to come into focus.
Then you have Leinster where there is a greater spectre of relegation hanging over teams. There is no automatic relegation in Munster – if Kerry win the second-tier Joe McDonagh Cup, then the bottom team in Munster faces them in a play-off. But if Kerry don’t win out then a Leinster team will be relegated.
It all starts with Offaly against Galway next Saturday night at O’Connor Park in Tullamore. Beforehand, the Offaly Supporters Club have organised a dinner where the All-Ireland winning team of 1998 have been invited.
It’s hard to believe 20 years have passed since we were kings of September.
I always try to be as neutral as I can in this column but I do hope Offaly won’t be relegated. The reality is, however, somebody is likely to be demoted from the Liam MacCarthy Cup.
Teams then are going to be targeting games. Offaly are at home to Galway and Wexford. Do they go with their strongest team against the All-Ireland champions? Beating Wexford is a more realistic ambition. That’s a huge game. Offaly go to Dublin in their last game of the round robin. If the results go as some expect, and it’s between those two in terms of fourth and fifth, that match will be like an All-Ireland final.
Offaly also have to play four matches in a row which doesn’t favour the smaller county with a tighter squad.
Galway, Kilkenny and Wexford are looking like the three teams to qualify.
Dublin’s record away from home is not great but they tend to be a different proposition at Parnell Park. So that opening game against Kilkenny is a huge one.
That’s the first two conundrums then with the provincial competitions.
So what about the third, the AllIreland series?
I put it on record that I couldn’t see this Kilkenny team winning an All-Ireland, only for Brian Cody to prove that the transition period for the Cats is over by winning the League. Galway spent the spring
cruising without ever hitting top form; Waterford had an abysmal League and were relegated, Kieran Bennett leaving the panel ahead of the Championship is another setback.
Tipp came with some big performances until the League final. They tend to prefer a turkey shoot, trying to outscore everyone with their defending leaving a lot to be desired in that decider against Kilkenny.
They will take a bit of comfort with Patrick ‘Bonner’ Maher and Noel McGrath to come back but they were still very disappointing in that defeat to Kilkenny
I always go back to the most recent Championship form and that’s why Galway can come good. I’d say they know their Championship team at this stage.
Of the top four last year, I’m most worried about Waterford. They don’t have home matches, don’t have the form. Poor against Cork, they were outfought when their top flight status was at stake.
Limerick are the team that could surprise. They have a very strong panel which looks suited to the early rounds with the run of matches. I’m just not so sure in later rounds, do they have that super star or two to make the next step, a TJ Reid or Séamus Callanan type.
We had John Troy, Johnny Pilkington, Johnny Dooley, Brian Whelahan – you need that star quality to go all the way.
You could end up qualifying third in a group, and have a nice passage through.
Leinster looks easier to win but there will be no respite in Munster along the way.
You’re going to have to win more hard matches than ever. It really is going to be survival of the fittest.
It is going to be the hardest Championship ever won.
And I don’t think it will swamped by football’s Super 8s in high summer.
An All-Ireland semi-final and final will always stand on their own two feet. I’m old school in loving the September finish so an August ending means that it is going to be different, right to the last ball.
And that’s not even getting into the brilliant players and the brilliant matches that will light the whole thing up. A summer then, like no other. I just hope it lives up to expectations.
I think it will.