Leo is riding a wave of good vibrations. Now’s the time for an election

THIS week, on the anniversary of his first year as Taoiseach, Leo Varadkar stood four square behind Eoghan Murphy. In the high stakes game of how the next election will be called it was Sinn Féin who blinked first by not seeking the embattled Housing Minister’s head as they promised to do.

Varadkar’s strong statement that a snap election was likely if Fianna Fáil supported Sinn Féin’s putative no-confidence motion in Murphy sharpened political minds.

The Taoiseach was not for turning. He reluctantly saw one minister, Frances Fitzgerald, fall to avoid a Christmas election, but there was no way he would cast aside another to satisfy a weakened Fianna Fáil and the untested Sinn Féin under Mary Lou McDonald.

The fact that Murphy masterminded Varadkar’s climb to the top in the Fine Gael leadership election coup only doubled down his intentions. That will stand him in good stead as party leader. The Blueshirts like the trappings of power but not enough to sacrifice one of their own on an issue they are, as they see it, making progress on.

That the progress is tortuous can be blamed on Fianna Fáil, as Murphy said on Friday’s Morning Ireland. Fine Gael might not want to go to the country but they are ready and willing to do so. The same can’t be said of Fianna Fáil who are spilt on abortion, and have had a disastrous run in the polls since Varadkar became Taoiseach. The confidence-and-supply deal seems to have sapped morale in the Soldiers of Destiny.

Eoghan Murphy’s jibe in that Morning Ireland interview – that Fianna Fáil might support a no-confidence motion in him just to remain relevant – hurt Fianna Fáilers because they know it is true.

By not seeking Murphy’s resignation Sinn Féin’s bluff was called by Varadkar. The party doesn’t want the blame for calling a summer election. Expect McDonald to barnstorm around the country and be effective in debates, compared to the ineptitude of Gerry Adams. But Sinn Féin tends to underperform in general elections.

It has finally dawned on them that politics is about being in power rather than moralising and complaining from the opposition benches safe in the knowledge that you can never make a difference.

All the other general election runners are stuck in neutral, fighting over a bare handful of seats.

The overriding narrative, however, will be the Taoiseach. But where stands Varadkar a year on? Painted by enemies as a free market ideologue, and all spin, a kind of youthful Ronald Reagan, Varadkar has serious substance. No politician reaches the highest office without backbone. The Taoiseach is no hudsucker proxy for bankers and property developers.

He is a complex character who thinks seriously about problems and is a rarity in Irish politicians, one driven by ideas. As far back as May 2010 he described himself in Hot Press as ‘centre right’, declaring that before you distribute wealth you have to create it.

Those on the left have never come to terms with that and that is why hard-left, statist-only solutions never work in modern democracies. In that context Varadkar is an ideologue and that is no bad thing.

In that Hot Press interview he insisted most Irish people had a centre-right mindset and vote that way but couldn’t admit it because ‘right’ is a bad word. He also said the reason he joined Fine Gael was ‘values’ and that it was the party that would tell the truth even when people didn’t want to hear it.

From Brexit to housing to the chronic state of the health services, Varadkar has tried to call politics as he sees it. His bluntness infuriates opponents but proves successful with the public where, for some time, over 60% have approved of the job he is doing. Fine Gael has benefited from his popularity. But on Brexit, housing and health Varadkar is also vulnerable. The Brexit backstop deal of last December has unravelled in as much time as it took to write it and Brexit is still the great imponderable.

It has made unlikely bedfellows of Fine Gael and Sinn Féin but, as their spat about Eoghan Murphy shows, they will never be able to operate together in government. As parties they are just too different ideologically and neither have the malleability of meaning all things to all men and women as Fianna Fáil did in its heyday.

If Varadkar and his policy lieutenants Paschal Donohoe, Eoghan Murphy and Simon Harris cannot put a dent in the housing and health figures, the rosy hue from the abortion referendum will dissipate as quick as the Irish summer.

Varadkar remains awkward in social settings and like Enda Kenny he can lose the run of himself when away from base.

Witness the cringe-inducing first visit to Downing Street, and the braggadocio on show in the White House when claiming to have made representations on a planning matter to Clare County Council to help Donald Trump.

But these missteps have not proved fatal and, as the summer recess looms, the Taoiseach can look back on his first year with some satisfaction, and even a hint of pride. The economic recovery that Fine Gael promised to keep going in 2016 is now in full stream. The Eighth Amendment has been repealed.

As he enters his second year in office, despite his declamations not to want an election any time soon, Varadkar must look at those opinion polls and think it is he who should call the election. It would be a mistake to leave it to others.