FG and FF deal may ‘continue up to 2021 election’

Neither party wants to lose benef its of conf idence and supply arrangement

SENIOR sources in both Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil last night told the Irish Mail on Sunday that the confidence and supply arrangement has the potential to continue right up to the 2021 deadline for a general election.

Predictions for the lifetime of this Government are increasing as politicians become more comfortable with the advantages it brings.

A minority Government always has the potential to fall unexpectedly but some TDs are speculating that the Dáil could survive until 2021.

Even if it does not survive that long without a general election, many TDs are convinced that there will be no national poll until at least after the 2019 local and European elections.

A confluence of political events in recent weeks has changed the nature of the arrangement that sees Fianna Fáil support a minority Fine Gael Government in confidence motions and financial votes.

The continuance of the unprecedented arrangement is increasingly desirable for Fine Gael as it maintains Leo Varadkar as a Taoiseach blessed with a surplus of gifts to distribute to his parliamentary party.

Almost all of Mr Varadkar’s parliamentary party have jobs as Cabinet ministers, junior ministers or committee chairs.

This would change after a general election.

‘Leo is really enjoying being Taoiseach and, strangely, this minority Government left to him by Enda Kenny has left him secure as his parliamentary party all have jobs,’ said a ministerial source.

‘If there was an election tomorrow the best Leo could hope for is a return in a coalition,’ said the source, ‘but a coalition would mean he would have to give away up to six Cabinet seats to a coalition party. Right now he has given away only three.’

In Cabinet, three ministerial posts are held by independents – Shane Ross, Katherine Zappone and Denis Naughten.

This would change in a coalition. There is also speculation that Mr Naughten, who lost the Fine Gael whip under Enda Kenny, may yet return to the party.

‘Leo would have to give away junior ministerial posts too,’ said a source.

Fine Gael does not believe it is ready for an election and the party’s internal polling does not indicate that it would significantly increase its seat quota.

Fianna Fáil, after the party divisions that emerged during the Repeal the Eighth referendum, is anxious to hold off an election for as long as possible.

The party’s internal polling is showing it perhaps increasing its seat tally to between 58-61 seats, a significant increase but not enough for a stable government.

‘We need to hold off and continue to build up candidates,’ said a Fianna Fáil source.

‘We also need to put clear blue water between us and that abortion referendum.’

It was reported last week that Brexit will see the confidence and supply arrangement extended by a year.

Few TDs disagree with this assessment.

‘In a coalition Leo would have to give up seats’