SF has Micheál and Leo playing for time
LEO Varadkar and Micheál Martin would give anything to win the next general election, but both of them know their only guarantee of becoming the next taoiseach is in a coalition with Sinn Féin. But neither the Taoiseach nor the leader of Fianna Fáil could credibly cast aside their solemn oaths that Sinn Féin is not fit for government.
So both leaders of the two biggest political parties want to delay the next election, desperately hoping that something will turn up to dramatically change the current stalemate.
A snap election would be a risky gamble for Leo Varadkar: even if it marginally improved his chances of winning, it would leave Fine Gael with fewer ministers in government.
How could he improve on the current position: 30 ministerial positions – 12 of the 15 in cabinet – for his 50 TDs elected in February 2016?
Current polls suggest the best result for Fine Gael in an early election would be the gain of just of a handful of seats. And with fewer independent TDs predicted to be elected, his only realistic option to remain Taoiseach would be a coalition with Sinn Féin.
The cold logic of numbers should dampen the ardour of those Fine Gael TDs itching for an early election – and the same reasoning should soften the cough of capricious Fianna Fáilers demanding a premature end to Leo Varadkar’s government.
Mr Varadkar and Mr Martin know that Mary Lou McDonald would demand five cabinet seats, including a couple of super-junior ministers with seats at the cabinet table, plus another handful of ministers of state.
As Tanaiste, she would also insist that those Sinn Féin TDs not in government chair Oireachtas committees.
And then the leader of Fine Gael or Fianna Fáil would have to explain the prospect of Sinn Féin sharing the most sensitive intelligence with their backroom strategists – and a veto over economic policy.
Why, asked two very senior Fianna Fail front benchers last week, would Leo Varadkar risk losing office with a snap election if Micheál Martin facilitates him by extending their ‘confidence and supply’ arrangement?
And when the polls favour Fine Gael, it would be very foolish for the leader of Fianna Fáil to withdraw his support and justify the Taoiseach calling a snap election.
His closest supporters remind anyone who listens that Mr Martin has only one shot in his political arsenal and if he withdraws Fianna Fáil’s support from the Government, an election is inevitable.
Mr Martin has been adamant about refusing to serve in government with Sinn Féin and could not credibly change his mind.
But a significant faction in Fianna Fáil’s grassroots – and many of its TDs and elected councillors – cannot contemplate a further term in opposition. ‘That would leave the party irrelevant and Fine Gael the natural party of government,’ said one backbencher last week.
And conceding five cabinet seats plus other enticements to Sinn Féin would leave Fianna Fáil as vulnerable as the SDLP before the smaller party consumed it.
Giddy backbenchers in both parties itching for action in an election are unlikely to sway leaders who have even more to lose personally than their elected colleagues.
BOTH Mr Martin and Mr Varadkar are keenly aware that the public is likely to punish any party leader suspected of provoking an early election for selfish party reasons. It is not yet 26 months since the formation of the current Government and Mr Varadkar’s election as Taoiseach – and he can wait another 18-months before going to the country.
But leading his party into Government Buildings as a winner would add legitimacy to Mr Varadkar’s leadership and bolster his authority as Taoiseach.
But his friends say that Mr Varadkar’s meteoric rise to the most senior position in Irish politics does not necessarily mean that he is likely to languish in Leinster House as leader of the Opposition.
They believe Leo Varadkar’s declaration two years ago that he would leave politics before he was 50 – and his low boredom threshold – would not permit him to languish in Leinster House as leader of the Opposition.