Two years on and we are no nearer a deal
IN THE 1980s, a political scandal blew up around the apprehension of double murderer Malcolm McArthur in the home of Attorney General Patrick Connolly.
Taoiseach Charles J Haughey described the affair as ‘grotesque, unbelievable, bizarre and unprecedented’ – a phrase which was promptly shortened to ‘GUBU’ by Conor Cruise O’Brien.
After two years of negotiating ineptitude which would be laughable if it were not so very serious, Brexit has entered the ‘GUBU’ phase. How will it end?
Nobody knows. Certainly, we are no nearer a deal. The new Brexit Secretary, Dominic Raab, a good choice for the role, will try to exercise grip with the help of Olly Robbins, the Whitehall official handling negotiations with Brussels on Theresa May’s behalf.
Robbins has been demonised by some bone-headed Brexiteer Tory MPs who should know better. In reality, he is one of the ablest civil servants of his generation.
He did indeed have to take a more prominent role in talks with the EU than is customary for civil servants, but what else could he have done? There was no leadership from No10 while David Davis and Boris Johnson seemed uninterested in grasping detail. Someone had to take charge.
On Wednesday, Boris did try to sound serious. But in his two years as foreign secretary, what did he actually achieve? He made no contribution to Brexit. And as a result of his crassness, a British wife and mother is trapped in an Iranian jail. A few years ago, Boris’s biographer, Andrew Gimson, said that putting him in charge of anything important was as wise as entrusting an ape with a Ming vase. Prophetic words.
Yet he is now again on manoeuvres, hoping to position himself for a crack at the Premiership. God help us.
Meanwhile, David Davis has returned to the role he most enjoys: a dagger in search of a shoulder-blade.
In my view, any government without those two is immediately stronger, but there are still mountains to climb.
The likelihood must be that the negotiating period will end without a deal. If so, that is bad news all round.
The argument against Brexit is that it ignores the economic interdependence between the UK and Europe. A campaign of mutual aggression and retaliation would be in no one’s interests, yet it could well happen.
In a rational world, this danger would be averted. But we are not only dealing with rationalism.
The EU is less of an economic concept than a religious cult. To devotees, the British are heretics.
So a hard and hostile Brexit is all too likely. How bad would that be? No one knows. Sense may still prevail. Some European governments do want a deal.
At home, Theresa May says she will tour the country explaining herself and – by implication – showing leadership. Can she manage that? Can she change?
EU is less of an economic concept than religious cult