Coveney already in poll position
Tánaiste has written to supporters seeking election donations
IT’S emerged that Tánaiste Simon Coveney wrote to supporters earlier this summer seeking donations to fund a possible general election in December, the Irish Mail on Sunday can reveal.
He raises the prospect that talks with Fianna Fáil to renegotiate a confidence-and-supply agreement could fail and trigger an election before the end of the year.
A letter from Mr Coveney to supporters on June 22, 2018, read: ‘I am writing to ask for your help. As you may know, the Government’s confidence-and-supply agreement comes to an end in December 2018 and without a negotiated extension we are likely to see a general election.’
He goes on to discuss how the election is the ‘most important in a lifetime’ for both him and Fine Gael. The Tánaiste says: ‘so I’m asking for your assistance to help me fund a strong campaign in Cork to gain seats for Fine Gael.’
However, the vast majority of TDs in Leinster House believe that there will be no general election this year.
It is expected, after some sabrerattling, Taoiseach Leo Varadkar and Fianna Fáil leader Micheál Martin, will renegotiate a deal.
Despite improved poll ratings for Fine Gael, there is still no obvious majority coalition government available. A general election would be likely to cause months of instability with no outcome assured.
A source close the leadership of Fine Gael said: ‘You must also remember that almost everyone in the Fine Gael parliamentary party has a job. If you were in the very unlikely position of agreeing a coalition, for starters you’d have to give away up to half the Cabinet seats.’
However, there are some TDs who say that elements of the Government would like to see a general election because of the growing Cervical Check scandal.
‘This scandal can only get worse, much worse,’ said a Fine Gael TD, ‘and the Taoiseach and certain ministers would like to get a general election out of the way before more damage is inflicted on them politically by what they have done to these women’. Ministers have been briefed over the course of the summer that pressure has been brought to bear on Mr Varadkar to consider going to the country before Christmas.
As Mr Coveney’s letter points out, the confidence-and-supply renegotiations could falter. Fianna Fáil leader Mr Martin wants to enter talks about the deal after the October budget. The original agreement was struck for three budgets, the last of which comes this autumn. There is an option to renegotiate. Mr Varadkar wants to renegotiate the deal as soon as possible and extend it for at least one more budget.
A senior Fine Gael source said this week: ‘The dynamic has changed, Fianna Fáil are damaged after the abortion referendum and they would want to delay a general election as long as possible. With our poll figures, we are in a good position for talks as we do not fear an election.’
Some Fine Gael people think that an early election would give them a mandate before crunch Brexit talks, which are likely to be extended into 2019.
Despite these competing views in Fine Gael, Mr Coveney is making contingency plans for an election. Though he is an extremely wealthy man in his own right, with his personal wealth held in trusts, he still seeks donations for elections.
‘For me and Fine Gael this election is the most important in a lifetime. We have focused for seven years on rebuilding an economy, getting people back to work and modernizing Irish society.
‘Having returned our country to balanced budgets, strong growth and full employment, we now have a clear vision for the kind of Ireland that’s possible with continued progressive and responsible politics,’ the letter added.
Deal talks could fail and trigger an election